Zema climbs the nets with friction between Tarcísio and Bolsonaro – 07/08/2023 – Politics

In the midst of the clash between Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), on the Tax Reform, the head of the Minas Gerais Executive, Romeu Zema (Novo), had an increase in his digital popularity.

This is what the DPI (Digital Popularity Index) shows, calculated daily by the research and consulting firm Quaest.

With the decision of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) that made Bolsonaro ineligible for eight years on the last day 30, the dispute officially opened over which right-wing name will succeed the former president and will lead the opposition in the 2026 election.

Less than a week later, Tarcísio, who has been touted as one of the top prospects – although he rules out having that intention – had a public disagreement with Bolsonaro at a PL meeting and has been fried by the radical right on the networks.

The movement has not yet represented a significant variation in Tarcísio’s digital popularity index, which leads among the names analyzed by Quaest.

While Tarcísio was painted as a traitor, Romeu Zema appeared as faithful to Bolsonarism, according to the assessment of Guilherme Russo, director of intelligence at Quaest. He highlights the repercussion of a text from the Metrópoles portal on negotiation for the politician’s entry into the PL.

The IPD, which ranges from 0 to 100, is calculated using an artificial intelligence algorithm that collects and processes 152 variables from Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Wikipedia and Google platforms.

Five dimensions are considered in the final score of the index: fame (number of followers), engagement (comments and likes per post), mobilization (shares), valence (proportion of positive and negative reactions) and interest (search volume).

The weight that each dimension has in the account is determined by a model assimilated by the machine from the real results of previous elections, with thousands of candidacies monitored by the company.

Despite being cited as an important electoral supporter, Bolsonaro has avoided showing support for eventual successors.

This Thursday (6), while Tarcísio was defending the Tax Reform, the former president received applause when he interrupted him to say that “if the PL is united, it does not approve anything”. Federal deputy Ricardo Salles (PL-SP), in turn, stated that the governor did not represent the right.

On that date, positive mentions of Zema on the networks stood at 38%, while Tarcísio had 27%.

One of the prominent posts citing Tarcísio was that of federal deputy André Janones (Avante-MG), who called him “companion”.

According to Russo, the movements in digital popularity are a risk alert for Tarcísio about his support base. This is because, while he was targeted by the right wing itself, criticism of Zema would have been concentrated on the left.

“That’s not a problem for him [Zema]in fact it is a very positive moment”, says Russo. “It validates his position as a right-wing candidate.” Tarcísio, in turn, evaluates the intelligence director, is forced to face the reality that his base is Bolsonarist and he will have a lot of work to build a distinct image of Bolsonaro.

Another highlight on Zema’s networks occurred in the first days of June, after a statement for which he was the target of criticism and accusations of xenophobia.

After stating that the states of the South and Southeast are different because in them there is a greater proportion of people working than living on emergency aid, the governor of Minas Gerais said that he was misunderstood.

Quaest’s analysis also identified that posts by Tarcísio and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro regarding the trial and mentioning Bolsonaro have higher engagement than those on other subjects.

Tarcísio did not pass judgment on the decision of the electoral court, but showed support for the one who locked him in for the São Paulo government, saying that Bolsonaro’s leadership as a representative of the Brazilian right is “unquestionable and endures” and ended the post with the phrase: “We follow together, president”.

Also in early June, a rise in Tarcísio’s digital popularity was linked to the former president, who on June 8 posted a video praising the ally. On the same date, the March for Jesus took place, where the governor of São Paulo was applauded and even knelt on stage with his hands raised in prayer.

Considering the month of June, the post with the greatest repercussion among the names analyzed, with 1.5 million likes, was by Michelle after the trial on her Instagram, when quoting a biblical verse she wrote that “whoever acts unfairly will receive due payment of the injustice committed”.

Another high point was in early May, the same week as the PL Mulher event, which she chairs. There were criticisms from interlocutors of Bolsonaro’s presence in a festive appointment, in the week after the arrest of allies.

Despite the advantaged position in digital popularity, appearing ahead of other names that have been suggested, such as governors Ratinho Júnior (PSD-PR) and Cláudio Castro (PL-RJ) and senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS), the viability of a presidential candidacy for Michelle is seen as remote.

She would not be a consensus in the Bolsonaro family itself, and the most likely hypothesis is that she will run for a seat in the Senate. On the other hand, among evangelicals, there are defenses for a candidacy bringing together Tarcísio, at the head of the ticket, and Michelle as vice-president.

With an advantage over Michelle only in part of the period analyzed by Quaest, Eduardo Leite did not assess the repercussions on the networks from Bolsonaro’s condemnation. Your recent highlight post, brings a photo with President Lula (PT) visiting the Piratini Palace, in Rio Grande do Sul, with a speech on dialogue and search for solutions.

Leite, who was unsuccessful in becoming a candidate for president in 2022, has been preaching the need for a project that offers an alternative to the polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula.