Zelenski’s ‘everything’ – 04/14/2023 – Demétrio Magnoli

“Zelensky cannot want everything,” exclaimed Lula, indicating the line he would follow on his visit to China, where he tried to establish a partnership with Xi Jinping in the mediation of eventual peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. “Everything” there means Crimea and NATO. The first suggested waiver undermines Brazil’s position as a trusted mediator. The second evidences a primitive appreciation of geopolitical realities.

Brazil, courtesy of the Itamaraty of Mauro Vieira, voted on the UN resolution that demands the immediate withdrawal of the invading Russian forces and respect for the Ukrainian territorial integrity. Lula’s statement, courtesy of special advisor Celso Amorim, reneged on the Brazilian vote. Crimea is part of the internationally recognized Ukrainian territory. No nation that respects the UN Charter has the right to propose the cession of part of the territory of an invaded sovereign country – as, incidentally, Ukraine explained in its response to Lula.

No country, with the obvious exceptions of Russia and Belarus, is known to be capable of similar lewdness. Even China, with its vague “peace plan” that hints at a temporary ceasefire for negotiations without withdrawing Russian forces, has refrained from drawing up territorial cessions in a future peace deal. The reason: under the principle of national sovereignty, only Ukraine has the right to propose handing over areas of the country to a foreign power.

It is possible to imagine a politico-military scenario in which, in the name of its survival as an independent nation, Ukraine is obliged to make territorial concessions. Nothing prevents analysts prone to speculative exercises from drawing the conjectural post-war Ukrainian borders on maps. But heads of state occupy a different place. Lula’s crazy suggestion tarnishes Brazil’s credentials with the Ukrainian government, even as it provokes spurts of happiness in the Kremlin.

Before the Russian invasion of 2022, Ukraine’s intention to join NATO was part of the realm of mirages. The US did not contemplate the possibility of joining a country partially occupied by Russia since 2014, which would imply direct confrontation with a nuclear power. Germany, engaged in close energy cooperation with Russia, vetoed the Ukrainian candidacy. Today, however, for many practical purposes, Ukraine has already joined NATO.

Putin has placed Ukraine in the western alliance. The notion of Ukrainian military neutrality could be suggested in the opening months of the war. More than a year later, it shattered in shock with the facts. Ukrainian munitions of Soviet-era caliber began to run out — and were replaced by NATO-caliber munitions. American and European artillery and air defense systems were transferred to the invaded nation. German, British and American tanks and armored vehicles arrive at the battlefront. Ukrainian troops receive training in NATO countries.

If Russia stops fighting, the war is over; if Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine is finished. After the war, except in the unlikely scenario of the emergence of a Russia without Putin and without imperial ambitions, Ukrainian independence will rest on the protection of NATO. No Ukrainian government, short of a Moscow puppet regime, will give up formal membership in the Western alliance. At the other end, the US and NATO would experience fatal strategic demoralization if they barred Ukraine’s entry. Only a Trump could undo what Putin has done.

Lula did not understand the war – neither its nature nor its implications. The Russian imperial war is, from Ukraine’s point of view, a national war of independence. Don’t joke about it. Putin’s adventure turned NATO into a prerequisite for the sovereignty of Russia’s neighbors. Does Lula want to negotiate the sovereignty of others?

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