Would nomination for STF affect Lula’s popularity? – 04/10/2023 – Michael França

A group of civil society organizations, which also included the participation of the Black Coalition for Rights, recently conducted an unprecedented national survey on the possibility of Lula nominating a black woman to the STF (Supreme Federal Court). In conclusion, the study found evidence showing that Brazilians support the nomination of a black woman to the Supreme Court and that by doing so, Lula’s own popularity would increase.

On a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 represents strong opposition and 100 means strong support, the survey found that the average support for Lula’s appointment of a black woman as the court’s new judge is 65.4. Support for the nomination is slightly higher than average among women (69.2, or +3.8 above average) and among those over 55 (66.4, or +1 above average). Even among those who identify as right-wing in politics, the nomination has considerable support (56.1), but it still does not compare to the broad support of the left (78.7).

The research also shows that the appointment to the STF may have a role in the popularity of the current president. When asked whether support for Lula would increase or decrease with the appointment of a white man to the Federal Supreme Court, the study suggests that Brazilians, on average, could decrease the president’s approval by 4.1 points. When the same question was asked, but for the nomination of a black woman, Brazilians tended to increase support for Lula by 7.4 points.

Also noteworthy is the fact that the study involved randomization to identify how the campaign for Lula to nominate a black woman as minister influenced people’s opinions. It is worth highlighting that, if well conducted, this methodology is considered the “gold standard” in research aimed at analyzing impact assessment.

Through the Swayable platform, the opinion of more than 11 thousand citizens across Brazil was collected. The tests carried out as a result of the intervention showed that watching a simple campaign video, such as the one made by IDPN (Institute for the Defense of the Black Population) entitled “Everybody has a Dream” (available on YouTube), further expanded more support from the right and left for the issue.

The appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson in the USA

Similar research was also carried out during the process of nominating Ketanji Brown Jackson as the first black woman to serve on the US Supreme Court. However, there are important differences in context.

Biden immediately fulfilled his campaign promise to nominate a black woman when the opportunity arose, so the campaign in the US focused more on Congressional approval and publicizing Ketanji Brown Jackson’s qualifications than on supporting her nomination. However, both US and Brazilian efforts have emphasized the historical significance of appointing a black woman to such an important position.

Overall support for the nomination of Ketainji Brown Jackson was actually slightly lower in the US than the idea of ​​nominating a black woman to the Supreme Court in Brazil (58.8 compared to 65.4 in the Brazilian case). Right-wing people in Brazil appear to be more in favor of the nomination than right-wing people in the US (56.1 compared to 36.8 for very conservative and 47.7 for moderate conservative Americans).

The text is a tribute to the song “Evolution”, composed and performed by Ablaye Cissoko.

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