World Bank: Child malnutrition will not end in 2030 – 7/13/2023 – World

The World Bank brings bad news. Its report on the effects of inflation on food indicates that it will be practically impossible to meet the goal according to which child malnutrition should end by 2030. In numbers, 141 million children under five years old are malnourished today, which is equivalent to one fifth of all minors in this age group.

The report was originally published on June 20 and updated with new statistics two weeks later. The document, in English, is on the institution’s website.

The goal of achieving zero hunger among children was set by UN agencies dealing with health and nutrition that met at a World Health Assembly for Sustainable Development in 2015. Child nutrition was one of the 17 topics on the agenda.

World Bank documents are written in austere language and avoid even the slightest sensationalism when accompanying their own goals or those of other international organizations. Thus, instead of a dramatic connotation, the text on food inflation and its effects on food shortages tries not to abandon a technical tone.

Countries are named only when their inflation rates translate into greater food insecurity. The report lists, in descending order, the following countries as those that have recorded the highest annual rates of food inflation: Venezuela (450%), Lebanon (304%), Argentina (118%) and Zimbabwe (117%). Brazil is not mentioned.

The text does not separate adult malnutrition from child malnutrition. The assumption is that out-of-control inflation affects the access of people of any age to the food market.

It is curious that the financial institution operates in a very fine tune when reporting its follow-up mechanisms. Between the version of its June report and that of two weeks later, the World Bank found that monthly price changes recorded from February of this year and which were not available in early June were 3% for cereals. Wheat, rice and corn prices rose by 8%, 1% and 2% respectively. However, following 12 months, corn is 18% cheaper.

The report does not temper the inflation figures with any real income gains. That is, there is no precise calculation of how oscillations in purchasing power affected food consumption. Even so, among economists, one of the current ideas is that in the poorest countries income is systematically lost when chasing price inflation.

We are talking, then, about the strata of inflation and poverty with which entities such as the WHO (World Health Organization) or the FAO, the UN food agency, operate.

Here are some data. In the last month computed from February, food inflation is greater than 5% in 61% of lower middle-income countries. And in 81% of even lower income countries. Upper-middle-income countries have a similar problem: 77% of them also have food inflation of 5% or more.

The same phenomenon occurs with 80% of the richest countries. In 161 countries where statistics are more constant and reliable, 84% have food inflation rates greater than the general price increase. That is, food weighs much more in people’s pockets.

The World Bank study does not take into account structural factors from the climatic point of view, such as the long droughts that affect agriculture. Nor does it calculate the effects of warming Pacific waters in the Ecuador region, which has recently restarted and is better known as El Niño. Generally speaking, however, the report mentions the return of the thermal phenomenon and the alert launched by American meteorological authorities.

On the other hand, the World Bank shows that it is aware of the effects of the War in Ukraine on international food prices. An annex to the report indicates that the conflict’s effect on grain prices is inevitable, not least because 29% of the world’s wheat and 62% of sunflower seeds come from Ukraine or Russia.

These and other products have their transport logistics affected by the dispute, since the only hot water ports used by these two gigantic grain exporters are on the Crimean peninsula, occupied by the Russians. World Bank experts believe that countries most dependent on Russian or Ukrainian grain are the most vulnerable, especially those that expect to be supplied in the second half of 2023.