Women’s World Cup: what are Brazil’s chances? – 07/20/2023 – Sport

The fact that the same country is cited by different specialists and statistics as a favorite to win the World Cup does not do justice to the expectations generated by the Women’s World Cup to be played in New Zealand and Australia. That’s because the tournament is considered one of the most disputed in history.

It is a fact that the United States won four titles in the eight editions it played, that they won the last two World Cups and that they start as the main candidate to lift the trophy in this year’s final, scheduled for August 20th.

However, at the end of 2022, the national team suffered three consecutive defeats against three European teams (England, Spain and Germany) and this gave hope to their rivals to break the American hegemony in the World Cup.

“Last year was the most balanced Euro Cup in history and this World Cup will be the same way,” said Willie Kirk, coach of Leicester’s women’s team, in the top flight of English football.

BBC News Mundo, together with BBC Sport, consulted several experts, former players and statistics to find out which is the favorite team to win the World Cup, in addition to knowing what the chances of Latin American teams are.

Heading for the title

Based on figures and projections from data analysis company Gracenote, the United States appears as the candidate most likely to successfully defend its world title.

The methodology is based on the classification established by FIFA to predict the results of each match, with around one million simulations of the entire tournament.

“It’s hard to see beyond the US,” admits Northern Ireland striker Simone Magill.

“They have a successful track record and the track record speaks for itself. Their mindset makes a huge difference and they are a winning machine. It’s hard to see that changing this season,” he added.

But one of the legends of English football, Kelly Smith, considers that “they have had some setbacks recently in terms of results and they don’t have the same big names in the lineup”.

The Venezuelan journalist of ESPN Deportes Geraldine Carrasquero agrees that the renewal of the squad could be a decisive factor.

“It’s impressive but it has 14 new players who have never been to the World Cup and we have to see how they respond,” he said.

According to Gracenote, the North American team has an 18% chance of winning the fifth world championship, but this shows that favoritism is far from overwhelming.

Germany and Sweden appear as their main rivals, with an 11% chance, although the Nordics appear on the same side of the table as the USA and would have to face the Americans in the semifinals.

Next come France with 9%, just ahead of European champions England who, along with Spain and hosts Australia, have an 8% chance.

The best Latin American team on the list is Brazil, world runner-up in 2007, with 7%.

Goodbye to Marta’s dream?

Despite having the eighth best percentage in the statistics, optimism in Brazil is quite moderate.

“It’s a team that’s going through a generational change,” said Renata Mendonça, co-founder of the women’s sports website Dibradoras and a commentator for Rede Globo’s SportTV.

“If you reach the semifinals it will be a success, but everything indicates that you will finish in second place in your group and in the round of 16 you will have to face Germany. It will not be easy”, explained Mendonça.

By the way, Gracenote gives a 41% chance to the Brazilians in a possible duel against the German team.

“Why not? They have Marta and a lot of young players who are doing well in Europe and in the US championships,” replied Geraldine Carrasquero when asked if Brazil could win the World Cup.

“With [a técnica] Pia Sundhage in charge, they can surprise. They already showed in the Finalissima against England that they were quite balanced and they drew physically,” she added.

The truth is that, with the presence of the Swedish coach on the bench, there is a lot of expectation about what Brazil can do in the World Cup.

“I’m looking forward to seeing how they play”, recognized the American Kristine Kelly, who holds the record for matches played in a World Cup.

“I’ve always believed that if they had better training and education they would be a really fearsome team,” he warned.

And the other Latin American teams?

Latin America will have its highest number of representatives at a World Cup, thanks to the increase in the total number of participating teams – from 24 to 32.

But also due to the progressive development of women’s football in some countries in the region.

Argentina, Colombia and Costa Rica already know what it’s like to play in a World Cup, while Haiti and Panama will make their debuts in the tournament.

All with very different objectives, but no less ambitious for that reason.

“My expectation for the South American teams is that they manage to knock down their respective glass ceilings,” said Carrasquero.

In the case of Argentina, for example, it would be to win their first game.

“The selection is in a process that started two years ago with the arrival of Germán Portanova as coach”, explained Angela Lerena, commentator for TNT Sport and TV Pública.

“Argentina had a more defensive attitude, knowing that they were inferior to most of the teams that are in the World Cup.”

“But now they’ve said no, that they’re going to play like Argentina plays, try to play in the rival field, press high, play a leading role and attack with a lot of people,” he added.

For Lerena, the most important thing is that they seek a football identity beyond the result.

“I like the idea that the future is being built. If a victory is achieved in this World Cup, that’s it, history has been made”, he concluded.

Colombia, in turn, will have the difficult task of trying to match what they achieved at the World Cup in Canada, eight years ago, when they surprisingly beat France and qualified for the round of 16, when they lost to the United States.

“I think he can go through to the next round,” said a confident Carrasquero of ESPN Deportes.

“For that, it will depend on what she knows how to do with the ball and on her skillful players like Linda Caicedo, Catalina Usme, Mayra Ramírez and Leicy Santos.”

As for representatives from Central America and the Caribbean, Carrasquero believes they benefit from playing in a confederation “where two of the best teams in the world are, Canada, Olympic champion, and the United States, world champion.”

“That makes the rest have to level up because otherwise they can be resolved very easily. One of the examples is that Panama and Haiti are there for the first time and Costa Rica remains.”

Gracenote’s stats give Latin American teams less than a 1% chance of becoming champions, but for now, it’s not about fighting for the title, it’s about reaching your own milestones.

Download the complete calendar for the 9th edition of the World Cup here.

And check out the quiz prepared by the BBC to test your knowledge of the tournament.

(With interviews by Laura García and BBC Sport)