With limited production, producer milk prices rise 1.3% after six consecutive falls, USP points out

[ad_1]

Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics at Esalq, in Piracicaba, indicates an increase in the value of the product. Market agents estimate stability. Milk production in ES Reproduction/TV Gazeta After recording six consecutive drops, between May and October 2023, the price of milk paid to producers rose 1.3% in November, as shown by the most up-to-date research by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), from Esalq, the campus of the University of São Paulo (USP) in Piracicaba (SP). The expectation of market agents, points out Cepea, is that prices will become stable and rise in December, still influenced by limited production in the field. 📲 Receive news from the Piracicaba region on WhatsApp The adverse climate, with records of drought in some regions of the country and excessive rain in others, impacted the volume of milk produced. The price of a liter of milk closed at R$ 1.99 at the net “Brazil Average”, which does not consider shipping and taxes. “The continuity of this movement in the coming months will depend on the reaction of consumption and the volumes of imported dairy products”, explains Cepea researcher for the sector, Natália Grigol. The states that make up the “Brazil Average” are Minas Gerais, Goiás, Bahia, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul. READ MORE Understand why the price of milk records the 6th consecutive drop The price of a liter of milk for producers has 5th consecutive drop and reaches R$ 2, points out USP Price variation between dairy basins The price movement varied between the dairy basins monitored by the institute throughout the month of November. “In Minas Gerais and Goiás, values ​​remained stable. In Paraná, the increase was below 2%, while in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, the increases exceeded 5%. In São Paulo and Bahia, the averages continued to fall”, specifies the researcher. In 2023, between January and November, the devaluation of the price of milk is still 23.8%, in real terms; and, in relation to November/22, the drop is a significant 24.5% (values ​​deflated by the IPCA of November/23). Series of average prices received by the producer (net), in real values ​​(deflated by the IPCA of November/2023). Cepea/Esalq_USP Price: reasons for the fall This movement of uninterrupted fall in the price of milk began in May this year and, as Cepea points out, is explained by the same reasons throughout the period of decline. The decline in the price captured by dairy products is explained by the greater domestic availability of dairy products – both due to the increase in domestic production and the growth in imports. “Until October, the devaluation of milk was linked to excess supply, due to the increase in domestic production and growing imports. However, dairy uptake has been slowing down since September, which explains the change in price behavior in November,” she highlighted. Milk is extracted using an automated machine, called a “milking machine” Fábio Tito/g1 📈 Milk Intake Index Cepea’s Milk Intake Index (ICAP-L) fell 0.7% from October to November, pressured by more intense declines in the southern states of the country, according to Cepea. 🌦️Climate limits production According to the researcher, the limitation of milk production, in turn, is due to the combination of adverse weather for the activity, due to drought and heat in the Southeast and Central-West and excessive rain in the South, with margins squeezed by livestock farmers. 💰Operating Cost Cepea research shows that the Effective Operating Cost (COE) of dairy farming in the “Brazil Average” registered an increase of 0.6% in November, influenced by the appreciation of concentrates, fertilizers, correctives and some medicines. Even though, in the year to date, the COE shows a retraction, the decrease in the price of milk exceeds the devaluation of inputs in the same period and, as a result, it is estimated that the gross margin of livestock farmers will have decreased by a significant 69% in 2023. In this context, investments in the activity tend to decrease, which contributes to reducing supply. 🛒Imports With the fall in the price of milk, imports lost strength in September, however, they grew again in October and November. Data from Secex show that foreign purchases of cheese drove the 5% increase in imports in November and that, in the year to 2023, the volume purchased exceeds that recorded in the previous year by more than 70%. “Dairy stocks were, in general, more limited in November – which helped to stop the fall in the price of some dairy products and increase, albeit slightly, the prices of UHT and mozzarella in São Paulo”, comments Natália. This appreciation was insufficient to guarantee profitability for dairy products, and the upward movement is not expected to persist in December, hampered by the decrease in consumption and the intensification of competition between domestic dairy products and between Brazilian and imported products. VIDEOS: Everything about Piracicaba and the region See more news from the region on g1 Piracicaba

[ad_2]

Source link