With falling deforestation, Brazil can achieve climate target – 11/10/2023 – Environment

More than a relief in relation to the past, the Amazon deforestation rate released this Thursday (9) by the federal government represents encouragement for the near future.

It was already expected, even before Lula took office, that Jair Bolsonaro’s successor would reduce deforestation rates in the Amazon. After all, as soon as environmental governance came to replace the anti-environmental conduct of the past administration, the message would reach the territories and deforesters.

More than a relief in deforestation numbers, the challenge posed by the Bolsonaro years is the reversal of the level, which was at an average of 7,000 km^two from 2015 to 2018 and jumped beyond 10 thousand km^two from 2019 to 2022.

On Thursday, when presenting the rate of 9,001 km^two deforested from August 2022 to July 2023, the management of Minister Marina Silva (Environment) brought two important indications for the near future.

Since we have already left the 10 thousand km level^two climbed by Bolsonaro, the first indication is that the reversal of the level is likely —if the rate of decline of 22.5% is maintained— to return next year to 7,000 km^twoas happened before the Bolsonarist period.

The second and most relevant indication is that the country is capable of meeting its self-imposed climate target in the Paris Agreement: to limit its greenhouse gas emissions to 1.32 gigatons of CO_two —that is, reducing emissions by 48% by 2025, compared to 2005. It is worth remembering: in the Brazilian case, deforestation represents more than half of emissions.

Here, yes, there is reason to be surprised. In the Paris Agreement, countries self-determine their goals based on what they believe to be most feasible — and most comfortable.

When it signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, Brazil maintained the Amazon deforestation rate at 6,200 km^two —very close to the historic minimum of 4,600 km^two, achieved three years earlier. The country chose the year 2005 as the basis for calculating the reduction in emissions, when deforestation was still around 19 thousand km^two. In other words, it promised to achieve by 2025 a target that was already practically guaranteed by the controlled deforestation rate.

Cut to 2023. Still cleaning up the house after the dismantling of environmental policies promoted by Bolsonaro, Brazil is confirmed as the host of the UN climate COP30, in 2025.

This will be the most important UN climate conference of the decade, as it is when countries must present their homework on the Paris Agreement and also commit to new goals, capable of limiting global warming to 1.5°C — the number “magic” is the average that will prevent the disappearance of island countries and other irremediable catastrophes.

The countries’ current targets in the climate agreement still lead us —that is, if they are met—to a climate hell, the global average of which is above 2.6°C.

In the presidency of COP30, Lula’s Brazil will have the role of mobilizing countries to commit to so-called “more ambitious” goals. At the same time, the government may have to deal with the possible embarrassment of announcing to the world, playing at home, the non-compliance with the emission reductions scheduled for 2025.

Until three months ago, people linked to the Ministry of the Environment said it was practically impossible to meet the target set for 2025. The department’s confidence changed with the conclusion of the deforestation rate measured by Prodes/Inpe.

According to a technical note published by the Climate Observatory, considering that all other emissions in the country remain stable, the contribution of Amazon deforestation rates to emissions forecast for 2025 should be limited to 470 million tons of CO_two.

“It would mean limiting deforestation in the Amazon to a rate of about 6,000 km^two in 2025″, says the note, pointing to a deforestation target 33% lower than the rate released this week.

In other words, if the annual rate of decline in deforestation in the region continues to be close to 22.5%, the Lula-Marina administration has a chance of bypassing the Bolsonaro years and announcing, in two years’ time, the fulfillment of its climate target at COP30.

In addition to maintaining the current strategy, the government will have the challenge of imposing environmental control over the cerrado, implementing the Forest Code, increasing the budget for environmental policy and investments in command and control bodies, in addition to preparing incentives in the territories to sustain the results achieved.

“This involves replacing Ibama’s staff, which currently has only 52% of the agency’s staff filled as expected more than 20 years ago, by removing legislative threats to the PPCDAm (Plan to Prevent and Combat Deforestation in the Amazon) , such as the PLs on land grabbing (2,633 and 510) and environmental licensing, for the rejection of works that induce deforestation and for the continued political support for the Ministry of the Environment’s plan by the federal government”, states the note from the Climate Observatory.

The credibility and leadership of the Lula-Marina administration will be fundamental in mobilizing the efforts of other nations.

Therefore, doing your homework on deforestation is the first step for the Brazilian presidency of COP30 to gain momentum, given the last chance for countries to review their goals in time to avoid a catastrophe. Large holder of the largest tropical forest in the world, Brazil will assume another role in 2025: that of the political lung of the climate agreement.