With a 6% increase, Lula government proposes a minimum wage of R$1,502 in 2025

readjustment

Adjustment follows forecast of 3.25% of INPC higher than 2.9% of GDP

The minimum wage in 2025 will be R$1,502, with a nominal increase of 6.39%. The adjustment is included in the draft Budget Guidelines Law (PLDO) of 2025, sent this Monday (15) to the National Congress.

The adjustment follows the projection of 3.25% for the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) for the 12 months ending in November plus the 2.9% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023. The estimate also includes from PLDO.

The minimum value had been confirmed earlier by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, in an interview with the television channel GloboNews. However, the Ministry of Planning confirmed the estimate only after the release of the PLDO.

The project also presented forecasts of R$1,582 for the minimum wage in 2026, R$1,676 for 2027 and R$1,722 for 2028. The projections are preliminary and will be reviewed in the PLDO in the coming years.

Last year, the minimum wage was once again corrected by the previous year’s INPC plus GDP growth, the sum of the wealth produced by the country, two years earlier. This formula was in effect from 2006 to 2019.

According to Planning, each R$1 increase in the minimum wage has an impact of approximately R$370 million on the Budget. This is because Social Security benefits, the salary bonus, unemployment insurance, the Continuous Payment Benefit (BPC) and various expenses are linked to the variation in the minimum. In Social Security, the account considers an increase of R$66.7 billion in expenses and gains of R$63.1 billion in collection.

The value of the minimum wage for next year may still be changed, depending on the effective value of the INPC this year and the new adjustment policy. By law, the President of the Republic is obliged to publish a provisional measure by the last day of the year with the minimum value for the following year.

In 2024, the minimum wage is R$1,412, with a real gain of 3% compared to 2023. The value of R$1,412 corresponds to the INPC accumulated in the 12 months ending in November 2023, which totaled 3.85%, more GDP growth of 3% in 2022.

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