What’s behind the war between Renan and Lira – 7/8/2023 – Politics

On June 25, Arthur Lira turned 54 years old. To honor the president of the Chamber of Deputies, advisers prepared a video, published on a social network, with congratulatory statements. The ten-minute piece opens with caresses from family members, and then the remaining nearly two-thirds are occupied by mayors from Alagoas, 25 in all—thanking them for “partnership”, “improvements”, “benefits”, etc. One of them defines Lira as “the greatest political leader in Alagoas today”.

Despite being in opposition to Governor Paulo Dantas (MDB), the influence of the PP parliamentarian in his home state is growing and reflects the power acquired in Brasília in recent years, as leader of the centrão in the Chamber, president of the House (in the second consecutive term ) and factuality of the Jair Bolsonaro government by increasing deputies’ control over the Budget through rapporteur amendments —now limited by the Federal Supreme Court.

Lira’s advance —dealing with allegations of corruption involving assistants— ignited a war with the biggest boss in Alagoan politics, Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB). For the first time in almost 30 years, the leader of the Calheiros clan has a rival who, if he has not managed to dethrone him in charge of the state, heads an ascending group and has methods of political action similar to his own: power emanating from Brasília, but strong performance at the bases and parochial and clientelistic profile –although in different ideological fields, Lira on the right, Renan on the left.

The 25 mayors in the anniversary video are a brief sample of Lira’s bankroll. Allies estimate that the deputy currently has influence over at least 40 city halls, among the 102 in the state, in addition to controlling positions and influencing federal agencies in the state, such as Codevasf, CBTU, Incra and Porto de Maceió, to name just a few. Some of these areas were once under Renan’s orbit.

President of the MDB in the state, Renan claims that the party has 70 city halls “and should reach 80”. As Alagoas has 102 municipalities, the two groups inflate the size of their armies and, at the same time, there is overlapping support. Several mayors who remain in Renan’s MDB were co-opted by Lira, such as Luciano Barbosa in Arapiraca, the second largest city in the state, and Kil de Freitas in União dos Palmares.

It would be more of a provincial political war, were it not for the opponents of two of the most influential parliamentarians in Brasília, taking the conflict in a small state (second smallest in the country) and poor (it has the 20th GDP and the worst HDI among the 27 states of the federation). to spill over into national issues such as the choice of ministers, support in Congress and the progress of strategic projects for the government, much to President Lula’s dismay.

GENESIS

In the 2010 campaign, when Lira was elected federal deputy for the first time, his father, Benedito (Biu) de Lira, ran for a senator seat with Renan as a competitor. They formed a veiled partnership, with attacks on Heloísa Helena (at the time in PSOL), who started out leading and ended up without being elected. The two seats in the Senate went to Biu and Renan, with the first finishing ahead. It was the sign that the Lira were moving up a level and could overshadow the Calheiros.

In 2014, Renan launched Renan Filho to the state government, against Biu de Lira. In a campaign marked by attacks from both sides, Renanzinho won in the first round, renewing the clan’s momentum. In 2018, Renan Sr. was re-elected senator (again in second place) and Renan Filho, Governor (Lira Sr. lost his Senate seat, Lira Filho was re-elected deputy once more).

The strengthening of Calheiros in the state coincided with the growth of Arthur Lira in Brasília, in the wake of the election of Jair Bolsonaro, whose government the deputy leader of the centrão took the reins when he assumed the Presidency of the Chamber, in 2021.

The apex of the war took place in the 2022 campaign, when the groups fought for the state government. Renanzinho left to run for the Senate (his deputy, Luciano Barbosa, broke with the group and went to run for Mayor of Arapiraca; and the President of the Assembly, Marcelo Victor, gave up taking over because he would also run for re-election). The governor was then indirectly elected by state deputies.

Everything indicated that Lira’s group, Victor’s ally (then in União Brasil), would take the chair, but the president of the Assembly broke with the deputy and migrated with his allies to Renan’s MDB. The chosen one in the indirect election was Paulo Dantas — who, after being the target of a police operation and removed by the Justice, was restored to his position by the STF and re-elected governor.

It is unanimous in Alagoas that Governor Dantas is more the offspring of the President of the Assembly than of Calheiros. “Marcelo Victor is in charge of Alagoas”, says former deputy João Caldas, father of the mayor of Maceió, João Henrique Caldas (PL), and Lira’s ally, echoing a mantra enunciated by sources of different shades.

During the campaign, Victor was approached by the Federal Police at a hotel in Maceió with a suitcase containing R$145,000 and campaign material. He and Renan attribute the action to Lira’s retaliation. When contacted, Victor declined to be interviewed.

Lira ended up as the most voted federal deputy in Alagoas (219, 4 thousand votes) and the fourth most voted in Brazil in proportional terms (13.26% of the total), confirming an ascending electorate —he expanded his proportional vote four times since 2010, while Renan has reduced his since 2002.

STREET FIGHT

The fissures of that campaign fueled the street fight that led to the dispute. Renan accuses Lira of having equipped the PF in Alagoas and of harming the government, as in the action in which the PP went to the STF to prevent the money from a sanitation auction from staying with the state Executive — Lira’s father is mayor of a city ​​that can benefit from the division.

Lira says that it is the opponent who has always committed the wrongdoing he is accused of. The chatter ended up in the courts and in the nets social.

“We had to resist their persecution. We resisted and won the election. All the power he had used to persecute the State of Alagoas”, says Renan. When contacted, Lira declined to give an interview.

The tussle coincides with victories by both to put an end to investigations in which they were accused of corruption.

“This is the most civilized fight we’ve had in history,” jokes Aldo Rebelo, former president of the Chamber and former minister of various ministries in the Lula and Dilma governments. “It usually ended in death, shooting, civil war,” he says, alluding to the violent history of local politics, which, on a smaller scale and intensity, survives to this day.

A kind of reference for Renan in the early days of both their political careers, in the student movement for the PC do B in the 1970s, Aldo praises his colleague. “Renan is a well-educated politician, he has ideas, the ability to compose, form alliances, he always manages to survive his allies. Lira is the leader of the Budget.”

Lira’s marketer in the last election, Rui França (who has already worked for Renan’s allies) sees similarities between the opponents. “Arthur acts in the same way as Renan: political support, grassroots support. A type of approach that not even Téo [Vilela Filho] Neither Ronaldo Lessa nor Collor had one, and they didn’t make the slightest effort to have one. Renan arrives here [a Maceió] on Friday and receives mayor all the time. Arthur does the same thing. They have a very similar line of work.”

Toucan Teotônio Vilela Filho, known as Téo, governor for eight years (2007 to 2015) and senator for Alagoas for 20 years (1987 to 2007), generally agrees with this idea, but sees differences between Lira and Renan in political retail.

“Arthur is for political correctness, it’s not about putting a hand on the shoulder, having a drink, extending the conversation, like Renan. His way is: ‘What do you need in your base to vote for me and my father? It’s a business, take it, give it here.” Téo stresses that he has no political enemies and that he has a relationship with both.

For João Caldas, “Renan can’t say anything, Arthur is just copying what he always did”.

Renan is the main cacique —or colonel, according to opponents— of post-dictatorship Alagoas politics, a period in which Divaldo Suruagy and Guilherme Palmeira dominated the scene. He emerged in national politics when he was one of the mentors of Fernando Collor’s candidacy for the Presidency, in the first direct election after the military regime, in 1989. He was leader of the Collor government in the Chamber, but soon broke with the president, who did not give him explicit support in the dispute for the government of Alagoas in 1990.

His trajectory of power would begin in the Itamar Franco government, as leader of Petroquisa, a subsidiary of Petrobras. He was Minister of Justice in the FHC Government and three times president of the Senate — the first time, he had to resign from office so as not to have his mandate revoked amid corruption accusations.

APPOINTMENT SCHEDULED

It is not certain, but a direct dispute between Renan and Lira for the Senate in 2026 is likely. The emedebist confirms that he will try for his fifth term. Although he is a pragmatist and knows that his stake in 2026, without the Presidency of the Chamber, will be smaller, allies bet that he will try the unprecedented flight. “Arthur is positioning himself to run, with great chances of victory”, says former deputy Davi Davino Filho (PP), second in the race for the Senate in 2022.

“I like having him as an opposition because he usually loses”, teases Renan.

Asked about the chance of a conciliation before that, the senator disdains. “We have a good relationship with everyone, with all the mayors. We don’t have it with him and we don’t want to have it, especially after what he did with Alagoas in the last eight years. The more power he has, the more he will use to persecute Alagoas. You can’t have a relationship.”

Téo Vilela still harbors this hope. “If these guys managed to put their ego and anger aside, they would help Alagoas, the two themselves and Lula. Everyone would only have to win.”

For João Caldas, it is a hopeless case. “They’re going to keep fighting, I don’t see any chance of a truce, because the thing has already gone too far. If a truce comes, it won’t go beyond cynicism.”