What are the impacts of a re-election of Lira by the largest possible margin

The mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), works hard so that his likely re-election at the helm of the House is ensured by an overwhelming result. Some allies calculate a victory with at least 460 of the 513 possible votes, which would be a historic result and would surpass the record of former deputy João Paulo Cunha (PT-SP), who won the election with 434 votes in the 2003 election.

Lira has been meeting with deputies from all states, regions and parties in Brasilia to ensure her reappointment. In addition to the meetings, he has been engaged in mediating the interests of the subtitles for spaces in the Board of Directors of the Chamber and in permanent commissions in order to ensure favorable agreements and pacify the political environment in the Legislative House.

The forecast is that the deputy will have the support of almost all parties in the Chamber, with the exception of the Psol/Rede federation, which made official the candidacy of elected federal deputy Chico Alencar (Psol-RJ) through social networks, and the Novo party, that launched deputy Marcel van Hattem (RS) in the last two elections.

Accommodating and contemplating the 16 party benches that support him poses challenges to Lira. Without the division of party blocks, there are more difficulties in intermediating the demands of the parties and sealing the agreements for the distribution of spaces in the Chamber. The assessment among leaders, however, is that he has done a good job in sewing party interests and that helps to secure the re-election with a wide margin.

Lira’s close allies ensure, however, that he does not make calculations or projections of a likely score. Deputies explain that the maximum accounting is done in the “wholesale”, due to the number of state benches and respective parliamentarians who have responded to their invitations to meetings in Brasília, at the official residence of the president of the Chamber of Deputies.

In a note, he himself assures that he does not work with a target of votes for his reappointment. “Deputy Arthur Lira vehemently denies that he has stated that he is seeking 400 votes for the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies. Although the congressman is a candidate for re-election, he has never stipulated any goal in this regard”, informed his press office after the speech. CNN Brazil report that he would have told allies that it was possible to reach the aforementioned mark.

Which explains Lira’s effort to ensure her reappointment in the Chamber

Lira’s effort to ensure a comfortable reappointment is evaluated under different analyses. Pragmatically, a Chamber leader interviewed by the report believes that this is a way of guaranteeing risk-free re-election by avoiding gaps for the emergence of a competitive candidacy that could threaten him.

Another leadership that supports Lira says he has the ambition to secure a large victory and sees it as a form of vanity. “It would be an important recognition, because if he is elected with more than 440 votes he will be able to say that he was the most voted president of the Chamber and that it is unlikely that they will beat his record”, privately assesses a deputy party leader.

A third leadership consulted under confidentiality believes that Lira is working hard to ensure a symbolic vote and pave the way for his candidacy for the Senate election in 2026, a wish that was expressed to allies in his political environment. “With a sweeping victory, Arthur [Lira] he will be able to move on to the second half of his term with a feeling of accomplishment and unconcerned with the collective and more with his state [Alagoas]because there will be a difficult election to face there against [senador] Renan [Calheiros]who won’t want Arthur to have one of the [duas] vacancies,” says a deputy nearby.

In general, however, allies point out that Lira’s candidacy is “independent” of him. “Arthur is very strong and, whether he likes it or not, the candidacy is bigger than him. The way he built himself as president gives him almost unanimity. He has no dispute and discourages anyone from running with him”, says one of the deputies.

Federal deputy Zé Vitor (PL-MG) does not rule out the possibility of a historic vote, but avoids predicting a score. He believes that Lira “will certainly be re-elected” and will have the support of the majority of the Chamber. “In my view, he has fulfilled his role, has been a good president for the House and has the conditions to continue at this moment when the government so badly needs a president who is committed to Brazil, above all”, he highlights.

Federal deputy Celso Sabino (União Brasil-PA) is another who also believes in a comfortable victory given the attention given to deputies and Lira’s ability to sign agreements. “If you continue with this math and formula, you have everything to have an expressive vote for the recognition that parliamentarians have shown in the meetings”, he justifies.

How are the meetings between the mayor and the deputies

As a favorite for re-election and under the argument of remaining vigilant in Brasília after the acts of vandalism in Praça dos Três Poderes, on January 8, Lira chose to remain in the federal capital and receive deputies instead of maintaining the tradition of visits to the states. during the campaign for the mayoral presidency.

In the meetings with the deputies, Lira made an assessment and accountability of her management and dedicated special attention to the deputies elected in relation to the last two years. One of the points most touched by him was the rescuing of meetings of colleges of leaders in attention to federal deputies from low to high clergy.

Another point addressed is the empowerment of the Chamber. Lira mentioned that his management was marked by the highest number of approved projects authored by parliamentarians. Maintaining a strong and independent Legislature in relation to the Executive was one of the main promises made by him in the 2021 campaign, even with the support and sympathy of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

At the end of each meeting, Lira does not explicitly ask the deputies to vote, but leaves space for the parliamentarians to speak, which is normally used by close allies who praise his mandate and express support for his reappointment.

Re-elected deputies who voted for Lira in 2021 believe that he fulfilled the promises made two years ago, including greater respect for the workday of federal deputies with the end of prolonged sessions that stayed overnight, as occurred in the last administration of the former President Rodrigo Maia (PSDB-RJ).

“Arthur fulfilled what he promised in the last campaign. He gave more plurality when he started to hold the meetings of the college of leaders. Even if he made a decision, he always had the opportunity to come and complain. Many will also give him the chance on their own of empowerment to the deputies. As he is not a first-time ally of the [presidente] Lula, this makes him much stronger, because he is an independent guy”, evaluates a leader of the House.

Deputy Celso Sabino praises Lira and reinforces his understanding that attention to deputies helps his re-election campaign. “The thermometer that I have felt in conversations with the deputies is one of great satisfaction. I think that an expressive vote should not escape. The manifestations are all of aggregation, support and recognition”, he highlights.

Sabino says that Lira has been “tireless in building consensus” and in seeking to add the country’s “common interests”, such as economic development and job creation. “He gave prestige to parliamentarians and the thematic benches of interest in the Chamber, such as the evangelical bench, the female one, the one for security, culture, health, so it turned out that he managed to attract many sympathizers”, he says.

Lira’s candidacy walks in a “quite natural” way, moved by the parliamentarians themselves who seek attributions in the campaign, adds Sabino. “He campaigns normally, meeting dozens of times during the day, he is meeting with the regional and state benches, talking to the deputies one by one”, he maintains.

What are the limits to Lira’s powers in case of broad re-election

Although Lira’s re-election by a wide margin consolidates his powers and expands his political capital, a historic result would still not guarantee him the conditions to secure a successor. Even around the president of the Chamber there is an analysis made by some that the possibility of placing an ally in his place is uncertain.

The bet made by some of Lira’s allies is that there will be two candidacies in the elections for the Board of Directors of the Chamber in 2025: one supported by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and another by an ally of Lira. Federal deputy Marcos Pereira (Republicanos-SP), national president of the party, is a name quoted to dispute the election.

“I am sure that the government will not give up having its own candidate. Just remember the power that Maia had and how it failed to support Baleia [Rossi (MDB-SP), presidente nacional de seu partido que concorreu com Lira em 2021]”, comments an ally of Lira.

Another ally assesses that, if the re-election is confirmed, it will be two years in which “anything can happen”. “The scenario ahead can be positive or not for Arthur, but I don’t see that an election with 400 votes or more would give him much advantage”, he says.

“An elastic score does not mean that he will have less problems. Arthur was not the candidate of the left and he became because he had already shown himself to be unbeatable and there was a wing that was walking with him for having won the trust of the people. good mediator and fulfiller of commitments”, adds the deputy.