União Brasil, PP and Avante forward agreement by party federation

União Brasil, the Progressive Party (PP) and Avante reached an agreement to form a party federation — a kind of temporary union between parties that lasts for a minimum period of four years. Talks are advanced and, if they materialize, the party bloc would consolidate itself as the largest in the country, with 115 federal deputies, 15 senators, seven governors and the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), who is involved in the negotiations. .

In addition to Lira, the presidents of União Brasil and PP, deputy Luciano Bivar (PE) and senator Ciro Nogueira (PI), respectively, participate in the conversations. Also actively involved are the vice-president and leader of the Union in the Chamber, Antônio Rueda, and deputy Elmar Nascimento (BA). The president of Avante, deputy Luís Tibé (MG), is another one engaged in the discussions.

On February 7, for example, Bivar and Lira discussed the topic in a meeting. The mayor also held talks with Rueda. A PP leader who asked not to be named said there are talks day and night about the federation.

Lira himself confirmed, on the last 10th, the progress of discussions around the party federation. “These are important parties, with expressive benches. In case it occurs and becomes effective [o acordo]will also make a balanced contribution so that the electorate, the states and the Brazilian population can more easily follow the performance of each federation”, he said during a visit to the state of Espírito Santo.

Lira’s speech is interpreted by interested party leaders and directors as an institutional way of explaining what the federation actually represents. A leader of the União Brasil, who also requested anonymity, stated that the objective is to have control within Parliament and be the balance point in conducting governance.

Federation would have the largest bench in the House and the second largest in the Senate

With 115 deputies and 15 senators, the federation would have the largest bench in the Chamber and the second largest in the Senate. For a PP leader, who requested anonymity, the party bloc would represent a great force capable of influencing the annual budget proposals for the next four years and would represent great power over the negotiation of direct and indirect administration positions with the federal government.

The seven governors of the federation would represent the largest group among the 27 Brazilian states and, consequently, would increase the influence of União Brasil, PP and Avante on agendas of interest to the government, such as tax reform. That is, any agenda that discusses adjustments on subnational entities would give the political group bargaining power and the necessary strength to raise its political capital.

Party federation wants to dictate directions for the command of the Chamber and Senate

The control of the congressional legislative agenda, as well as budget discussions and part of the Budget itself through parliamentary amendments, represents only part of the federation’s objectives. Other goals are to maintain control of the House and have the command of the Senate in the next biennium. The federation has as background the election of the Presidency of the Chamber in two years. The information is from a leader of União Brasil who asked not to have his name revealed.

Directors and leaders with knowledge of the negotiations on the party federation claim that the political group is building an agreement for Elmar Nascimento to succeed Lira as head of the Chamber in the 2025 Board of Directors elections. on the House and “pay back” in the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

In building his ministerial team, Lula passed over Nascimento’s nomination for the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development. The veto irritated Lira and the leader of União Brasil, as well as the political environment closest to both. In response, the government resumed relations with the leader of União Brasil, to the point that the parliamentarian suggested the appointment of his own sponsors and those of his political group in federal autarchies. Examples of these autarchies are the Northeast Development Superintendence (Sudene) and the São Francisco and Parnaíba Valley Development Company (Codevasf).

A Nascimento candidacy for the presidency of the Chamber with the support of Lira and the party federation bench would bring power and influence to increase the chances of placing his successor. However, the movement could face resistance from Senator Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) — who is aiming for a candidacy for the presidency of the Senate in 2025.

Federation targets prefectures and the command of the Planalto Palace

The 2024 and 2026 elections are also part of the federation’s political calculation, although leaders claim that the Union and the PP do not need to form a federation for municipal elections. In any case, it is admitted behind the scenes that the expansion of the command of prefectures helps to increase capillarization and political muscle for the presidential race.

Having the command of the Presidency of the Republic would be the “icing on the cake” among the goals of the party federation, which may or may not have its articulation power amplified by success over the years. In practice, the party bloc’s desire is to facilitate the most competitive candidacy of the “third way” or to place the strongest candidacy in a field of the center-right.

For this, the Union and the PP invited the governor of Rio de Janeiro, Cláudio Castro (PL), to join. Another desired name is that of the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD), which was invited by União. For now, both rule out an exit from their parties, but they have not closed their doors after the polls received in recent weeks.

The two governors are quoted by some in Congress and in politics as names for the Presidency, but leaders and leaders of the PP and the Union still see them as options to strengthen wings of both parties within a context of the federation.

What are the challenges for the Union, PP and Avante party federation?

Although talks are advanced, the party federation should only come out after Carnival. The goal is to launch the party block in up to three months, when the government wants to evolve the tax reform discussions. The objective is to increase Lula’s power and influence over Lula’s economic agenda.

A leader of the Union claims that the talks are moving towards a conclusion soon, but maintains that there is still resistance among the state benches. As the federations act as a single party, this implies the need to sign agreements in the states to define the command of the state directorates between the parties.

In Paraná, for example, there is a fear that the Union, chaired by deputy Felipe Francischini, will lose command of the directory to the PP, commanded by deputy Ricardo Barros. The same occurs in Bahia, where the general secretary of the Union, ACM Neto, competes for spaces with the political group of former deputy Cacá Leão, from the PP.

Union wants control of Rio and São Paulo, but PP does not agree

In São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the Union wants to have control of the federation, something that the PP still does not agree with. Because of these disputes, Ciro Nogueira has been less optimistic. According to a leadership of his party, he is even skeptical about the possibility of the outcome of the negotiations.

Union leaders consider, however, that today Lira has more strength and weight in the PP than Nogueira. This keeps the conversations alive and the possibility of the federation getting off the ground. As a gesture to the president of the Progressistas, it was assured that he will retain command of the Piauí directory, his electoral base.

Likewise, the directory of Alagoas will be in the hands of Lira. In some states there is a minimally greater pacification than others, but no one is going to make any guesses in Alagoas and Piauí, says a Union leader. He stated, anonymously, that in other states it will be necessary to build a coexistence.

Union sources say they find it unlikely, however, that the party will be without directories in São Paulo, Rio and Pernambuco. A leader of the PP says that nothing has yet been closed and that the parties are still discussing “specific adjustments in the states”. First, who will be the leaders of directories will be agreed, and then the conversation will be about the command of permanent committees in Congress.