Understand why the round of 16 has the lowest presence of Spanish teams in history

Two games open this Tuesday for the round of 16 of the Champions League – Paris Saint-Germain against Bayern Munich and Milan against Tottenham. Four teams, no Spaniards. Wednesday, another quartet — Borussia Dortmund v Chelsea and Brugge v Benfica. All from other countries, including an “intruder” Belgian club. It is the least Spanish knockout stage of all time, since the competition started to be played in the current format, in 2003/2004. An absence that is strange, after all, it is the country with the most titles and appearances in finals in the history of the competition. But that is not completely surprising.

Current champions, Real Madrid will be the sole representative of Spain. The merengue team will play against Liverpool on the 21st. The absence of the holder of no less than 14 titles would be something as rare and unusual as seeing a comet pass by. As for the other Spaniards who played in the group stage, it was somehow possible to imagine that the worst could happen.

Barcelona and Sevilla were unlucky in the draw, falling in strong groups. The former was no match for Bayern Munich and Internazionale; the second did not face Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund. It weighs against Sevilla the fact that they live a bad season – they are only 12th in the Spanish league.

Atlético de Madrid completes the trio of early losers. It was placed last in a group with Porto, Brugge and Bayer Leverkusen. In Espanyol, he is out of contention for the title, already 18 points behind leader Barcelona with just over one round played. Diego Simeone’s work is beginning to show signs of weariness.

These are circumstantial reasons. There is something more structural going on that explains the bearish bias of Spanish clubs. The first is the generation of players trained in the country. At the World Cup, Luis Enrique took a renewed team to Qatar. After an exciting start with a 7-0 defeat of Costa Rica, the team stalled until they were eliminated in the round of 16, against Morocco. The talents are there, but they’re not quite ready yet. And the Spanish school, in possession of the ball, is no longer as dominant as it was a decade ago.

Even Barcelona, ​​the second richest club in the world after Real Madrid, bases much of its football on Spanish players. When the crop is not so good or takes too long to blossom, the team feels the effects of this.

The economic aspect also has its weight. Real and Barça remain at the top, but increasingly threatened by rivals, especially from England. According to the annual ranking released by Forbes magazine, in 2015 Real Madrid, at the top of the list, was four times richer than tenth-place Milan. In 2022, the Meringue club is worth “only” twice as much as Tottenham, the club that closed the top 10 in the most recent list.

The Spanish giants cannot grow at the same rate as the English. While Real and Barça gained 52% and 61%, respectively, between 2015 and 2022, Liverpool and Manchester City saw increases of 348% and 204%, respectively. It is natural that they have more and more difficulties to compete. The Spanish minors, then, are not even spoken.

PSG in crisis

Of course, money doesn’t explain everything in football. Paris Saint-Germain, outside the ten richest of Forbes in 2015, has been among the most financially powerful for years – it was seventh in 2022 – and even so it did not manage to be European champion. There is always something in the way: either the knockout draw is unlucky, or important players are lost to injury at the decisive moment, or they are going through a bad technical phase precisely when they need to face the strongest opponents.

This time, the French achieved the feat of facing all the obstacles at the same time. They will face Bayern Munich, always a candidate for at least one Champions League semi-final. They run the risk of not counting on Mbappé, who is trying to recover from injury in time and, to top it off, they are experiencing a crisis in the locker room. After two defeats in a row, to Olympique, which caused the elimination in the French Cup, and to Monaco, for the Frenchman, sporting director Luís Campos discussed harshly with the Brazilians Marquinhos and Neymar, demanding greater commitment from the players. The number 10 himself confirmed the episode.

— There was a discussion where we didn’t agree with what Luís was talking about, but that happens. It’s not a fight where it’s going to break everything, I argue with my friends and even so I love them all. I think the discussion in football is part of it, football is not just love, affection and friendship – he downplayed in the press conference before the match against Bayern.

It will be in this climate that PSG will play at the Parc des Princes, looking for a victory that contradicts all German favoritism, six-time European champions. The other Champions League match today is very similar in that respect, opposing those with tradition and those with money. Milan will receive Tottenham at the San Siro, a match that marks the return of the Italian heavyweight to the knockout stage of European competition after nine seasons. A gap too big for someone who won the title seven times. On the other hand, there will be the Spurs, among the ten richest in the world, emerging teams that were runners-up in 2018/2019.

In common between them, the fact that at this point in the season, they deposit all the chips in the Champions League. Both no longer have title chances in the national leagues. Another similarity: no matter who passes, it will be a surprise if they also survive the quarterfinals.