UN warns of record heat after end of La Niña – 01/03/2023 – Environment

After an exceptionally long period of the La Niña climate phenomenon, which intensified drought and rains, a possible return of the El Niño heat episode threatens to break temperature records around the world, warned the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) this Wednesday. fair (1st).

The La Niña phenomenon is characterized by a cooling of ocean temperatures in the central and eastern part of the equatorial Pacific.

The current episode began in September 2020 and managed to partially mitigate global warming. Still, the UN meteorological agency said, 2021 and 2022 were the warmest years on record since 2015.

“The cooling caused by the long episode of La Niña has temporarily contained the increase in global temperatures, despite the fact that the period of the last eight years has been the warmest on record,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

The agency warned that, along with the proximity of the end of La Niña, there is a high probability of the occurrence of the phenomenon of inverse warming, called El Niño.

“If we now enter an El Niño phase, there is likely to be another rise in global temperatures,” he added.

La Niña happens every two to seven years and alternates with the reverse episode, as well as neutral moments. These temperature variations can cause significant climate fluctuations around the world.

The chances of an El Niño forming in the first half of the year are low (15% in April-June), but increase progressively between May and July (up to 35%) and rise considerably between July and August (55 %), anticipates the WMO.

“We need another two or three months to have a more reliable idea of ​​what will happen,” said Álvaro Silva, a consultant at the agency.

“Monitoring the oscillation between the two phases helps countries prepare for possible impacts, such as floods, droughts, or extreme heat,” he explained, in conversation with AFP.

Although El Niño and La Niña are natural phenomena, both occur in a “context of climate change caused by human activity that increases global temperatures, affects seasonal rainfall patterns and causes more extreme temperatures”, completes the WMO.