UN: 2023-2027 period likely to be warmest – 05/17/2023 – Environment

The period 2023-2027 will most likely be the hottest on record, due to the impact of greenhouse gases and the meteorological phenomenon El Niño, which are causing temperatures to rise, the UN warned on Wednesday (17).

“There is a 98% probability that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the hottest on record,” the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced.
The specialized organization of the United Nations also calculates at 66% the probability that the average annual temperature of the Earth’s surface will exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C during at least one of the five years.

The Paris Climate Agreements (2015) set the objective of limiting global temperature rise this century to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels from 1850 to 1900, or to 1.5°C as far as possible .

The data published on Wednesday “does not mean that we will permanently overcome the 1.5°C barrier of the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over several years,” said the WMO secretary general. , Petteri Taalas.

“The WMO, however, is sounding the alarm by announcing that we will exceed the 1.5°C level either temporarily or more frequently,” he added.

“An episode of El Niño is expected in the coming months and this, combined with climate change caused by human activities, will cause the increase in world temperatures to levels never reached”, said the Finnish meteorologist.

“This will have major consequences for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared”, he reiterated.

El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon, usually associated with an increase in temperatures, greater drought in some regions of the world and heavy rains in other areas.

The phenomenon last happened in 2018-2019 and provoked a particularly long episode of ‘La Niña’, which causes the reverse effects and, in particular, a drop in temperatures.

In early May, the WMO calculated the possibility of an El Niño developing by the end of July at 60% and at 80% that it would happen by the end of September.

In general, El Niño causes global temperatures to increase in the year following its arrival, that is, 2024 for this cycle.

Despite the moderating effect of La Niña, the last eight years have been the warmest on record and 2016 holds the temperature record.

The greenhouse effect gases – the three main ones are CO2, methane and nitrous oxide – concentrated at record levels in the atmosphere, retain heat and cause an increase in temperatures.

SINCE THE 1960s

“The forecast is that global average temperatures will continue to rise, moving us further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Leon Hermanson, a scientist at the British meteorological service, the Met Office.

The organization plays the role of the WMO’s main center for annual climate forecasts and those for the coming decades.

This year’s forecasts, which started at the end of 2022, come from 145 members and were provided by 11 institutes.

“Confidence in global average temperature predictions is high, because previous predictions show that all measurements are reliable,” said the WMO.

Global average land and sea surface temperatures have increased since the 1960s.

For 2023 the forecast indicates that they will remain above the average of 1991-2020 in almost all regions, with the exception of Alaska, South Africa, the south of Asia and parts of Australia, according to the WMO.

Parts of the South Pacific Ocean are likely to be cooler than average.