Three surveys converge in indicating a drop in Lula’s popularity

Three different recent public opinion polls, from the institutes Genial/Quaest, AtlasIntel and Ipec, converged in pointing out a significant drop in the popularity of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in recent months.

The most recent of these, published by Ipec on Friday (8), showed that the number of people who approve of Lula’s administration, classifying it as excellent or good, fell from 38% in December 2023 to 33% in March 2024, a decline of five percentage points in just three months.

At the same time, there was an increase in the negative perception of the government, with those who evaluate management as bad or terrible rising from 30% to 32%. Furthermore, according to Ipec, Lula’s approval rating fell significantly in the Northeast, the region of the country that most tends to support him: from 52% to 43%.

A day before the release of Ipec, AtlasIntel had already signaled a similar trend, with a drop of four percentage points in Lula’s positive assessment, from 42% in January to 38% in March. The same survey showed an increase in government rejection rates, from 39% to 41% in the same period.

Similar numbers were presented on Wednesday (6) in a survey by Genial/Quaest, with an increase in the government’s negative assessment from 29% in December to 34% in March. Approval fell from 36% to 35%.

The change pointed out by Genial/Quaest was especially strong among evangelicals: the negative evaluation of the Lula government among this group increased from 36% to 48%. The number may be related to recent statements by the president and PT members about Israel.

Opposition comments on drop in Lula’s approval rating

Faced with the negative numbers, the opposition used social media to criticize Lula and point out the reasons why his approval has fallen quickly.

On Friday, senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) made a comment via X comparing his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), with the current president.

“This government’s last name is crisis. Nothing works right, there is no economic plan, just an agenda of dismantling and revanchism against Bolsonaro. While Lula melts, Bolsonaro is applauded wherever he goes!”, he stated.

This Saturday (9), senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS) also posted on X about the numbers. “There are many mistakes, in several areas. It is no wonder that this government’s popularity has been plummeting,” she said.

Research methodologies

The survey by the Genial and Quaest institutes interviewed, in person, 2,000 people, between February 25th and 27th, 2024. The interviews were carried out in 120 cities in all regions of the country. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points and the reliability level is 95%

AtlasIntel interviewed 3,154 people online between March 2 and 5, 2024. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%.

Ipec consulted in person 2,000 people in 130 municipalities between March 1st and 5th. The survey’s margin of error is two percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%.