The Milei effect and Itamaraty – 08/15/2023 – Elio Gaspari

The anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei surprised by taking 30% of the votes in the Argentine presidential primary. The election will be in October and a lot of water will pass under the bridge. Even so, in a country with 114% annual inflation, the Central Bank (which he promises to close) raised interest rates to 118%, in a few days, the dollar soared and Argentine debt securities plummeted.

The Argentine problem is serious, but it is not unprecedented. There, General Jorge Rafael Videla, dictator deposed in 1981, died in a prison bathroom in 2013. In 2001, civilian president Fernando de la Rúa fled from Casa Rosada and in two weeks the country had three presidents.

The government of President Alberto Fernández is buggered. A prophecy by Jair Bolsonaro, improperly enunciated during the electoral campaign of los hermanos, was partially fulfilled. Fernández and Lula approached. Javier Milei, in turn, approached Bolsonaro.

With the cards on the table, the gravitational effect that would lead Brazil to get into the Argentine trouble is strong. If Bolsonaro shouldn’t have gotten involved in the 2019 campaign, Lula’s government shouldn’t have gotten involved in the 2023 race. At first glance, this seems impossible, even unfair. It would be like taking off your shoe without taking off your sock.

For competent diplomats, not only is this possible, but in worse circumstances, Itamaraty has already worked the magic.

In 1982, presidents Leopoldo Galtieri and João Baptista Figueiredo were good friends. Brazilian military kidnapped Argentine exiles in Brazil and Argentine military kidnapped Brazilians in Buenos Aires. General Galtieri (a drunk) had his idea: invade the Falkland Islands, lands lost in the middle of the ocean, ruled by the British.

The first part was easy and he took the Malvinas. There remained the second: what would England, governed by Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, do? On April 23, 1982, the Brazilian ambassador in London, Roberto Campos, informed: “It is speculated that the British proposals would be divided into three phases: Argentine withdrawal, transition period, where the United Kingdom would make some concessions towards of a shared administration, and of a negotiation of the final situation of the islands, including the question of sovereignty”.

The following day, he went further: “Several observers have been insisting that the UK would be very unlikely to launch military operations against Argentina while negotiations are ongoing.”

Doctor illusion. Thatcher sent the fleet down, retook the islands, and Galtieri, humiliated, was sent home. At Itamaraty, there was Chancellor Ramiro Guerreiro, wearing shoes and socks. He knew that the military adventure would end in disaster. It was about disassociating itself from madness, without placing Brazil as an ally of the British in a sensitive issue for all Argentines.

Guerreiro contained the impetus of Figueiredo and the Brazilian military allied with the Argentine dictatorship, with its tens of thousands of dead. Chancellor Guerreiro was a discreet diplomat. His colleague Araújo Castro said that he was the only person able to sleep during his speech.

By silence, Guerreiro left no public record of his magic. Details of it are in the Itamaraty archives. After 41 years, they are available to anyone who feels the urge to get involved in Argentine trouble and the adventurous soul of Javier Milei.

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