The Chinese riddle – 03/24/2023 – Demetrio Magnoli

Lula is not going to China because of Ukraine, but to reposition Brazil in a very different world –more complex, dangerous and Hobbesian– than that of two decades ago, at the inauguration of his first term. The war in Ukraine, however, hangs over the conversations he will have with Xi Jinping. The outcome of the conflict will redefine the contours of the world order. And the attitude of the Lula government in the search for a negotiated solution will determine the success or failure of Brazilian foreign policy.

What are China’s interests in the conflict unfolding on Ukrainian lands? Here is the riddle that our chief diplomats –Celso Amorim and Mauro Vieira– need to solve before signing a joint communique with Xi Jinping.

At the beginning, Lula attributed to Putin and Zelensky shared responsibility for the war (“when one doesn’t want to, two don’t fight”) and, reproducing Kremlin allegations, saw in the Russian invasion security motivations linked to the expansion of NATO. The “pro-Russian neutrality” rehearsed by Brazil adapts to the peace plan presented by Xi Jinping.

China declares itself “impartial” in the face of the war. Translation: in conflict, it does not distinguish the aggressor from the attacked, the invading nation from the invaded nation. For this reason, he abstained from voting on the UN resolution condemning the invasion. His peace plan mentions respect for “sovereignty” without specifying which sovereignty was violated, opening space for the Putinist interpretation that the illegally annexed Ukrainian territories belong to Russia. The plan calls for a ceasefire followed by negotiations, which would freeze Russia’s military occupation of a fifth of Ukraine. “Impartiality” has a side.

Distracted analysts imagine that China is interested in prolonging the war, in order to strain unity among NATO allies. They forget the relevance of the European market for the Chinese economy: the longer the conflict, the more Europe will disconnect from the power that offers support to the Russian imperial adventure. Xi Jinping wants peace — but not at any price.

China is agnostic towards Ukrainian sovereignty and, in general, the principles of the UN Charter that prohibit the annexation of territories by force. Xi Jinping doesn’t care about the issues of Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation or the drawing of its borders. All he cares about is preventing the fall of the Putin regime, the almost certain consequence of a Russian military collapse.

The US-China-Russia triangle assumes its third historic configuration. Until the Sino-Soviet schism concluded in 1969, China was a secondary ally of the USSR. Then, from 1971, it became the US minor partner, isolating the USSR in the bipolar order of the Cold War. Today, the original Sino-Soviet alliance has been reconstituted, but with inverted hierarchies. In the strategic confrontation with the US, China has the support of a Russia that occupies the position of minor partner.

Saving Putin from his clumsy calculation by preventing China’s isolation – that is Xi Jinping’s mission. The Chinese regime is committed to Russia’s economic rescue and, with its peace plan, seeks a victorious way out of the invasion launched by the head of the Kremlin. Lula has no right to involve Brazil in legitimizing a war of conquest.

The Brazilian posture has evolved since Lula’s pusillanimous statements: Brazil voted for the UN resolution that demands the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces. It is, however, an agonizing evolution, subject to setbacks: we continue to criticize military aid to the invaded nation and Mauro Vieira even suggested a “peace” with the Ukrainian cession of the Donbass. At this step, a detour is enough to engage Brazil in the Chinese operation, reducing our foreign policy to the status of a hostage in the war of a dictator with an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court.

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