See the dollar quote and the Stock Exchange today – 04/12/2023 – Market

The dollar hovers around stability on Wednesday (12), with investors once again eyeing important US inflation data, which may influence the Fed’s interest rate decisions (Federal Reserve, US central bank).

This Tuesday (11), while the Brazilian Stock Exchange soared after the announcement of the March inflation, the American stock indices showed the caution of investors with the behavior of prices there, closing without a defined direction.

At 9:23 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar retreated 0.17%, to R$ 4.9993 in the sale. On B3, the dollar futures contract for the first month fell 0.17% to R$5.0160.

March inflation, lower than expected by economists, made the Stock Exchange soar this Tuesday (11). The Ibovespa had its biggest daily rise in more than six months, with analysts seeing a door to an interest rate cut by BC (Central Bank) with prices in deceleration.

The Ibovespa closed up 4.29% to 106,213 points. It is the biggest daily advance of the index since October 3, 2022, the day after the first round of the presidential election, according to a survey carried out by the TradeMap platform.

The spot commercial dollar fell 1.16% to R$5.007. This is the lowest closing price for the US dollar against the real since June 2022.

In futures markets, interest rates also reacted to inflation. In these negotiations, the market tries to anticipate the behavior of the Selic in the coming years, according to the maturity of each contract.

In contracts for January 2024, the rate increased from 13.22% at the close of this Monday (10) to 13.14%. Upon maturity in January 2025, interest dropped from 11.99% to 11.78%. For January 2027, interest rates dropped from 11.98% to 11.75%.

The official inflation index in Brazil was pressured by gasoline in March, but slowed down to 0.71%, after an increase of 0.84% ​​in February.

This is what the data from the IPCA (National Index of Consumer Prices) released this Tuesday (11) by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) show.

With the new result, the IPCA accumulated inflation of 4.65% in 12 months —the advance was 5.60% until February. This is the lowest level since January 2021, when the index was at 4.56%.

Another subject that is on investors’ radar is the new fiscal framework. The president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), became one of the biggest supporters of the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad. In repeated meetings with authorities in Brasilia, he has repeated that the commander of the economy has “talked a lot, shown himself to be open” and “reasonable”. Lira is a fundamental piece for the approval of the new rules by Congress.

In the United States, the main theme is also inflation, but in this case, the expectation for the release of the consumer price index, the CPI, referring to March this Wednesday (12).

Stock indices in New York show that investors act in a waiting mode this Tuesday, waiting for the CPI to firm up a position in relation to the next meeting of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank), scheduled for May.

There was no definite trend across the major indices. The Dow closed up 0.29%. The S&P 500 ended the day flat, while the Nasdaq closed down 0.43%.

With Reuters