Research shows that even indebted, Brazilians are optimistic about the future of the economy

More than half (51%) of Brazilians declare themselves indebted, but in all regions, the majority believes in a reduction in indebtedness in 2023, reveals a survey “Radar Febraban Regional” carried out by the Brazilian Federation of Banks (Febraban) and Ipespe in June of this year.

According to the study, the expectation about the country for the rest of 2023 is better than the assessment of the current moment: 41% of Brazilians believe that the country is better than last year and 53% think that it will still improve this year . Observing the behavior of the regions, it is in the Northeast that the most expressive percentages of perception of improvement (48%) and of positive expectation (59%) are registered.

“The level of debt is not so scary. The problem in Brazil is that even a small debt-to-income ratio tends to have a very high interest rate cost. In this sense, optimism would not be in the expectation of a fall in the Selic rate, as the cost of credit is much higher”,

explains Josilmar Cordenonssi, professor of Economics at Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie.

It is important to emphasize that being indebted does not mean being in default, a situation that occurs when the individual owes, but is unable to pay his debts. The study was conducted with 2,000 respondents aged 18 or over from all five regions of the country, with quotas for sex, age, location, controlling for education and income.

Debt data

More than half (51%) of Brazilians declare themselves indebted. This number reaches 63% in the North, followed by the Northeast (56%), the Midwest (54%) and, practically tied, the Southeast (48%) and South (47%).

On the other hand, in all regions, the majority believe in a reduction in indebtedness by 2023: 40% believe they will be less indebted; 36%, the same way; and 20% more indebted. 4% could not say or did not answer.

“The majority perspective of lower indebtedness occurs in all regions of the country and is probably associated with signs of optimism in the economy. This optimism comes in the wake of the objective decline in inflation according to the IPCA. The results show a decrease in the perception of price increases in the last two months. In addition, there was a growth in the feeling that the country is better than in 2022 and that it will still improve until the end of the year”,

says Marcela Montenegro, executive director of Ipespe.

She recalls that the survey was carried out before the approval of the tax reform, which could further impact, from now on, the positive forecasts.

Mackenzie’s professor has the same understanding, for whom the Brazilian normally demonstrates an optimistic bias towards the future in various surveys.

“Objective data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, and the economy in general have been surpassing the pessimistic expectations generated by political noises provoked by the president himself. In the end, the market is learning to separate the noise of the political clash and that of the formulation and implementation of economic policies, given the progress of reforms that go in the right direction, such as the fiscal framework and the tax reform”,

he counts.

According to Cordenonssi, this optimism may be linked to expectations of increasing income or getting a job and, for the most vulnerable people who receive Bolsa Família, the perception of a lower risk of not receiving the benefit, generating less uncertainty than o Emergency Aid given by the previous government during the pandemic.

“In addition, at the time of the survey, the government had already launched the Desenrola program, improving the perspective of those who are or were in default and who may now have a chance to renegotiate their debts under better conditions”,

complements.

However, although the majority of the population is indebted, most people are unaware of the Desenrola Brasil program, created by the federal government to facilitate the renegotiation of debts, reducing the interest to be paid. The percentage of those who learned about the initiative is higher in the South and Southeast (48%) and lower in the North (41%), Northeast and Midwest (both with 40%).

However, among debtors, interest in the program is wide. The intention to participate in Desenrola reaches 71% in the Midwest, falling to 67% in the Southeast; 66% in the Northeast; 63%, North; and 56% in the South.

“Knowledge about the program is already expressive (45% on average for the regions) demonstrating its potential to generate interest, but it can and should be expanded, especially among younger people and in segments with less education, where misinformation about it prevails. . The adhesion potential is also demonstrated by the high percentage (65% on average) of the target public, with bank or non-bank debts, who declare their intention to participate”,

argues Montenegro.

Expectations about the economy

The study reveals even more data regarding society’s perspectives in relation to the economy. According to the survey: Unemployment will decline to 39% of all sample respondents; Access to credit will increase (41%); Purchasing power will increase (37%); The interest rate will increase (48%); Inflation and cost of living will increase (45%); taxes will increase (53%).

Regarding the priorities of families, from North to South of the country, health, employment and income and education occupy the first places in this regard.

*With information from IstoÉ

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