Request for Barroso’s impeachment interests government and opposition

The request for impeachment against Minister Luís Roberto Barroso, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), arouses interest from both the opposition and the government. Although Barroso’s conviction is evaluated by analysts as remote, the discussion, if taken to the full Senate, puts the command of the STF at stake from October. It also has the potential to impact judgments against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and his allies and, above all, could give President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) an extra nomination to the Court.

Opposition senators and deputies asked for Barroso’s removal this Wednesday (19) for his speech made during an event of the National Union of Students (UNE) on the last 12th, in which he celebrated having defeated “Bolsonarism”. The list of supporters of the initiative has members from ten parties.

The opposition was heartened by Pacheco’s public rebuke of Barroso’s attitude – whose words he considered “inappropriate and unfortunate”, demanding retraction. Opposing parliamentarians then mobilized seeking the impeachment of the magistrate. But some of its members have shown fear and sent mixed signals.

Flávio Bolsonaro says he prefers the end of the fake news inquiry to the impeachment of Barroso

A request for the impeachment of a minister is, above all, the hope of the opposition to try to bring back the balance between the powers of the Republic in the face of the excesses that have been committed by the STF.

In the very presentation of the request, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) expressed support for the impeachment, but pondered that it may not prosper. Therefore, he pointed out as an alternative and more effective solution for the “pacification” of tensions between the three Powers the closure of the Fake News Inquiry (4,781/2019), which continues to intimidate journalists, politicians and citizens.

“I have always been against the Lava Toga CPI and I have spoken several times with STF ministers to try to relax the relationship with the Bolsonaro government”, said the senator.

The leaders of the initiative, Senator Jorge Seif (PL-SC) and Deputy Carlos Jordy (PL-RJ), also recognized difficulties in obtaining more signatures in support of the impeachment within the opposition itself. They were caused by the absence of congressmen in Brasília during the parliamentary recess and by the fear of possible retaliation by the STF.

Furthermore, unlike in 2022, when the minister’s departure would directly benefit Bolsonaro, now Lula would be responsible for appointing Barroso’s replacement. He would certainly be more attached to the Executive than Barroso, the current vice-president of the Court, known for being an enthusiastic supporter of Lava Jato and considered to this day by PT leaders as a traitor.

Recently, the minister highlighted in public the “great services rendered” by the operation against “institutionalized corruption”. At every opportunity, he voted against the suspicion of former judge and current senator Sergio Moro (União Brasil-PR) in Lula’s processes.

Chance for Alexandre de Moraes and Fachin to expand their powers

For the constitutionalist lawyer Vera Chemin, master in Public Law from the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the possibility of admissibility of the complaint against Barroso by the Senate is remote. But she points out that such a situation could have significant implications, not only for the President of the Republic, but also for those interested in occupying a seat on the Federal Supreme Court (STF).

The opening of the impeachment process would impact the command of the Court, since Barroso would have his functions temporarily suspended until the outcome of the case. “Barroso is scheduled to assume the presidency of the STF from October, with Luís Edson Fachin as deputy. If there is suspension or final conviction, Fachin would take over as president, and Moraes would be vice president”, he highlighted.

Vera recognizes that several public agents, including the President of the Senate and the Attorney General of the Republic, may be aspiring to Barroso’s vacancy in the STF. However, she warns that an abrupt change in the presidency of the court would result in the expansion of the powers of ministers Fachin and Moraes, which could influence the selection of cases for the agenda of trials in the virtual and face-to-face plenary sessions. “This, in turn, could accelerate the appreciation of actions against Bolsonaro and other members of his political group”, added the lawyer.

“Barroso’s conviction would be advantageous for those involved in the power game, especially since the minister is still seen as favorable to Operation Lava Jato. Thus, removing Barroso from the STF and, above all, from the post of president of the court, would represent a strategic opportunity, within legal norms, to overcome obstacles and advance through institutional shortcuts in search of more power”, he analyzed.

Pacheco has a crucial role in the outcome of the Barroso impeachment discussion

To add an even greater degree of complexity to the political game, Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), who is the only one who can authorize the initiation of proceedings against the Minister of the Supreme Court, is one of the names quoted to assume a vacancy in the STF in the future.

It is no coincidence that in recent months rumors have been circulated that Barroso would be willing to anticipate his retirement, which was denied by the minister himself. Pacheco, who has already shelved several other requests for the impeachment of STF ministers, including that of former President Bolsonaro against Alexandre de Moraes, may have a different attitude, depending on the scenario.

The President of the Senate already has a close relationship with the Judiciary and may find justifications in an eventual departure of Barroso in the same “pacification effort”, in defense of the autonomy of the Legislative and even in the improvement of his public reputation, eroded in great measure by the resistance in prosecuting ministers of the STF.

On the other hand, he can also block the process, claiming extra willingness to avoid conflicts and the need to update the 1950 Impeachment Law, for which he presented a project prepared by a group led by former Minister Ricardo Lewandowski. This would increase your prestige with other members of the STF and your chances of getting a seat on the Supreme Court.

Lula would be the biggest beneficiary of Barroso’s impeachment

According to analysts who closely follow the backstage articulations, the trend continues to be the shelving of the request. Barroso is being accused of a crime of responsibility foreseen by the law that prohibits the political-partisan activity of ministers of superior courts, endorsed by decision of the National Council of Justice (CNJ). For the opposition parliamentarians, when assuming the Presidency of the STF and the CNJ, Barroso would represent the denial of what the Constitution obliges him to protect and defend.

On the other hand, Barroso’s impeachment would not bother the government, which has a majority in the Senate. Even supported by the opposition, the government supporters could embark on the minister’s impeachment agenda to do another favor to Lula, who still suffers from discomfort and pressure to choose the person who will take over from Rosa Weber, president of the Court, who will leave the STF in October.

In Lewandowski’s vacancy, Lula went ahead without batting an eye in his determination to appoint his own lawyer, Cristiano Zanin. For the vacancy of Rosa Weber, however, he has been pressured by allies and entities to indicate a woman, so as not to let the female representation of the Court be reduced to a single minister, Cármen Lúcia.

Dino, Pacheco, Benedito Gonçalves and Pacheco are options for Barroso’s vacancy

Pacheco, Minister Benedito Gonçalves, of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) and of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the President of the Federal Audit Court, Bruno Dantas, and even the Minister of Justice, Flávio Dino, are names suggested to occupy a chair in the STF. The more vacancies there are, the easier it will be for Lula to deal with the puzzle. If the impeachment were supported by government supporters and the opposition, Lula could only appoint three ministers in 2023.

It is also speculated that Cármen Lúcia, from Minas Gerais like Pacheco and his former professor at PUC Minas, could anticipate her retirement during the Lula administration, as was suggested to Barroso himself. Rumor has it that she agreed to the possibility. This would facilitate negotiations already underway to make Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), an ally of the current Senate president, return to command of the House in 2025, when Pacheco could take over Carmen Lúcia’s seat in the STF.

Although remote, Barroso’s early exit could also be obtained with impeachment pressure. For opposition parliamentarians, the departure of Barroso and the eventual entry of Flávio Dino in his place would not represent gains, apart from shielding the Minister of Justice from possible investigations resulting from the 8th of January.

There is still the possibility that Pacheco’s likely obstruction of impeachment will help reinforce his links with the judiciary. In a way, all possibilities play in favor of his pretensions, with different paths to choose from.