Pro-climate action costs less, says candidate to chair IPCC – 09/04/2023 – Environment

Brazil presents this Monday (10) the candidacy of scientist Thelma Krug to the presidency of the IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), for the cycle from 2023 to 2028.

If elected, Krug, who is already one of the vice-presidents of the body, will be the first woman and the first representative of Latin America in the highest position of the institution. Elections will take place in plenary session in July.

Mathematics, working at the IPCC since 2002, states that, in addition to learning about the evolution of climate science —which today points to the unequivocal association of human action with global warming—, it was the commitment of the thousands of panel authors and the encouragement from her grandson, Luca, aged 10, which led her to apply for this job.

From the last IPCC report, released at the end of March, she highlights the need for transformations in all sectors of society. Current actions, underline the scientists who sign it, do not correspond to the urgency needed to curb the rise in temperature on the planet.

“Rapid, deep and sustained reductions in emissions [de gases de efeito estufa] are necessary to limit warming to 1.5°C or even below 2°C”, says Krug, who emphasizes that the choices we make in this decade will have a direct impact on a sustainable future.

“The cost of action is going to be far less than the cost of inaction when the entire planet is suffering from these climate impacts with greater warming.”

With the increase in the volume and speed of scientific production on climate change, she argues that the panel produces smaller and more frequent reports. Krug adds that in the next cycle of the panel a special document on cities will be prepared.

“Cities contribute to approximately 90% of emissions if we consider the entire scope”, explains she, who worked for 37 years at Inpe (National Institute for Space Research), until 2019.

Krug decided to retire from the institute at the time of accusations by then-president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) that the deforestation data recorded by the body would be manipulated.

How to carry such serious warnings from the IPCC without leading the world to cynicism and inaction? IPCC reports have for a long time already indicated the situation regarding climate change and, more recently, this unequivocal association between human action and atmospheric warming has become a fact.

As of 2018, the IPCC indicated the need for transformations in all sectors of society, and we did not see an equivalent response. I wouldn’t say it’s inaction, but I would say that action doesn’t match the urgency that science shows if we want to have a sustainable future.

Five years later, what we see is that this challenge has become even greater. This higher frequency of extreme events shows that the costs are already high and will be much higher in the future.

The cost of action will be much lower than the cost of inaction, when the entire planet is suffering from these impacts of climate with greater warming.

The latest IPCC report says that we still have time to contain the worst impacts of the climate crisis, if large and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are made. How can this be accomplished? The IPCC indicates — and I stick a little bit to the 1.5°C part, because 1.5°C [de aumento na temperatura] it will already be unsustainable for many island countries—that emissions have to be cut in half by 2030.

It’s not like it’s the end of the world. But if that doesn’t happen, things will become more and more difficult.

The IPCC report is by no means fatalistic. He indicates in his mitigation report that there are already mitigation options that would lead us to halve [as emissões] in 2030.

Can you comment on these options? mitigation? You have options for every industry. In the energy sector, we talk a lot about the issue of decarbonization. Today there is this electrification of cars, which is questionable, but in many places it could work well.

If you look at solar energy prices, they were very high, but today they are more affordable for wider deployment. The expansion indicates advances that are not only happening in Brazil, but in other parts of the world.

Other examples are also taking place, mainly in the issue of land use in agriculture, that is, mainly, the reduction of deforestation, which is indicated as one of the ways of major reductions in emissions, and Brazil is an example of this.

In addition to all the urban planning part. In the next IPCC cycle, we will have a special report on climate change in cities. Cities contribute to approximately 90% of emissions if we consider the full scope of cities.

What should the role of the IPCC be in the coming years, given the existing robust scientific consensus on the climate crisis, political inaction and the revision of the Paris Agreement in 2025? The IPCC, through increasingly robust models, makes this assessment of the literature [científica] all around the world. And the speed of scientific publications on climate change has been enormous.

Perhaps the panel will decide to reflect on the importance and need for a greater frequency of smaller reports, which allow us to be always up to date.

What were your main lessons learned as vice-chairman of the IPCC and why launch your candidacy for chairmanship of the panel now? The submission of my name as a candidate for the presidency of the IPCC is the prerogative of Brazil’s focal point, which in this case is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs consulted with other ministries, and my nomination was welcomed by all, along with my contribution to the IPCC for 22 years.

During this period, there was an enormous learning experience: not only in understanding the evolution of science, but also in having a group of authors who, on a voluntary basis, dedicate themselves to producing this science, because they believe it will generate action.

This dedication, this desire to make a difference for these scientists, dedicating time to this in a very deep way, made me ask: can I also make a difference in this role? [na presidência do IPCC]? We have very good candidates, I’m one of them.

A recent analysis by the Carbon Brief portal revealed that the proportion of women and authors from the global south in the IPCC has increased in recent decades, but there is still much to be done for diversity. How has the IPCC been implementing the gender equality policy, established in 2020, and what are its proposals in this regard? When we talk about the gender issue, I think it is a little more complex. Because we usually work with this binary, female and male, but today there is a much greater diversity to be analyzed.

I particularly think that it is not about increasing the number of women, increasing diversity. I think the biggest issue is whether these people who are there, in greater numbers, are being respected. Are they being included as such, do they have a sense of belonging?

The panel authorized the contracting of a company that will carry out a survey among all those who participated from 2015 to 2023, to try to understand if they felt part of this group of authors in an equitable way, if opportunities were given to all those involved. I think the results will be very important to understand the necessary actions.

In a recent interview with Agência Pública, you stated that the vulnerability of agricultural production in Brazil to the impacts of climate change deserves special attention. What should be done in the coming years? This statement was based on projections made for the Midwest region, which is already being impacted by climate change. That is, with the current increase, this region is already being impacted and, for 1.5°C [de aquecimento]these risks of impacts increase due to greater droughts.

We expect action plans to anticipate what the future might be and, by doing so, they are not saying that there is no more solution, but, if we get there, how will we be prepared. Embrapa itself was developing species that are more resilient to heat and lack of water.

What should the country prioritize to regain credibility in the international climate scene? And what should be negotiated in terms of cooperation and funding, in addition to resources for the Amazon Fund? Our major bottleneck continues to be the issue of deforestation, which was one of the elements that caused Brazil to lose much of its credibility.

I think the Amazon Fund is not enough. It has been very important, but financially it is insufficient. This fund compensates, so to speak, for emission reductions when these are demonstrated, and we are not at a stage where this is sustainable.

Despite the importance of the fund, we need more investments from other countries, which will make it possible for this cooperation to come without initial ties, to give Brazil the conditions to start this reversal process.

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X-RAY

Thelma Krug, 72

Graduated in mathematics from Roosevelt University (USA), with a doctorate in spatial statistics from the University of Sheffield (England), she was a researcher at Inpe (National Institute for Space Research) for 37 years. She was also deputy national secretary at the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation and director of policies to combat deforestation at the Ministry of the Environment. At the IPCC, she co-chaired the task force on national greenhouse gas inventories from 2002 to 2015 and, since 2015, has occupied one of the three vice chairs of the panel.

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UNDERSTAND THE SERIES

Planeta em Transe is a series of reports and interviews with new actors and experts on climate change in Brazil and worldwide. This special coverage also accompanied responses to the climate crisis in the 2022 elections and at COP27 (UN conference held in November in Egypt). The project is supported by the Open Society Foundations.