Paraná Pesquisas publishes 1st electoral survey for the City Hall of Rio de Janeiro

Paraná Pesquisas released this Tuesday (7th) the first survey for the 2024 municipal elections in Rio de Janeiro. One of the scenarios surveyed showed the current mayor candidate for re-election Eduardo Paes (PSD) with 35.5% of the intentions of vote, against 22.1% of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

In another scenario, without the presence of Flávio Bolsonaro, the former mayor has a smaller advantage, of 34.4%. In this calculation, Paraná Pesquisas included Senator Romário (PL), who reached 14.3% in the second position.

The current deputy governor of Rio, Thiago Pampolha (União Brasil), appears in the last position in two surveyed scenarios, with 2.4% and 2.7% in the electorate’s preference.

The survey also showed that 55.8% of respondents approve of the administration of the current mayor, against 38.1% who disapprove. 60.9% of São Paulo residents cannot say the name of the current mayor. The survey was conducted between March 2nd and March 5th and the margin of error is 3.2 percentage points.

Check below the complete result of the research and the applied methodology.

Scenario 1, with Flávio Bolsonaro:

• Eduardo Paes (PSD): 35.5%
• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 22.1%
• Tarcisio Motta (PSOL): 7.1%
• Lindbergh Farias (PT): 5.9%
• Doctor Luizinho (PP): 3%
• Otoni de Paula (MDB): 2.6%
• Thiago Pampolha (União Brasil): 2.4%
• Don’t know/didn’t answer: 4%
• Blank/null/none: 17.4%

Scenario 2, without Lindbergh Farias and Thiago Pampolha:

• Eduardo Paes (PSD): 37.2%
• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 23.3%
• Tarcisio Motta (PSOL): 9.5%
• Doctor Luizinho (PP): 3.2%
• Otoni de Paula (MDB): 3%
• Don’t know/didn’t answer: 5%
• White/null/none: 18.8%

Scenario 3, without Flávio Bolsonaro and with Romário:

• Eduardo Paes (PSD): 34.4%
• Romário (PL): 14.3%
• Tarcisio Motta (PSOL): 7.6%
• Lindbergh Farias (PT): 5.4%
• Otoni de Paula (MDB): 5.2%
• Doctor Luizinho (PP): 2.9%
• Thiago Pampolha (União Brasil): 2.7%
• Don’t know/didn’t answer: 4.2%
• White/null/none: 23.3%

Methodology

Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 1,000 voters in the city of Rio de Janeiro in person, between March 2 and 5, 2023. The margin of error is 3.2 percentage points, and the confidence interval is 95%. The survey is not registered with the TRE-RJ (Regional Electoral Court of Rio de Janeiro). Electoral law requires registration only for polls published in the election year. The complete survey report is available in PDF at this link.