Pacheco and Zema’s chess realigns political game in Minas – 11/23/2023 – Power

Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) wrapped a gift for Bolsonarism with a ribbon by supporting the vote on the proposal that limits STF decisions. But the Senate president’s main move this week was a one-two punch with the Lula (PT) government.

Pacheco’s proposal to federalize state-owned companies and guarantee debt relief for Minas Gerais has the potential to realign the state’s political framework. If it has the projected effect, the plan makes the senator a competitive candidate for government in 2026, complicates Romeu Zema (Novo) and changes the weight of national actors in Minas Gerais territory.

Pacheco took advantage of a long crisis to mark his entry into the local dispute. While Zema struggled to find a solution to the state’s R$160 billion debt, the president of the Senate explored an alliance with the Palácio do Planalto and circumvented his political opponent.

The senator from Minas Gerais brought to Lula a proposal that, in practice, would avoid dramatic impacts such as the delay in paying salaries to state employees. In exchange for debt reduction, the idea is to transfer control of companies such as Cemig (Companhia Energética Minas Gerais) and Copasa (Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais) to the Union.

Pacheco’s account involves different counterpoints to Zema’s management. One of them is the role of state-owned companies in Minas Gerais in the plan. While the governor followed the liberalism manual and planned a process of privatizing companies to reduce the debt, the senator proposed hanging them from the federal government.

Pacheco tries to demonstrate an ability to extract concrete gains from his partnership with Lula. As the Minas Gerais electorate is traditionally divided between right and left, the idea is to color the alliance with a tone of pragmatism.

For the same reason, the president of the Senate also hints in another direction. Although the PEC of monocratic decisions has as its main objective to seal the support of the Bolsonarist bench for the election of Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP) to command the House in 2025, Pacheco’s allies believe that the approval of the text will help reduce pressure from the right about him in a future dispute for the government of Minas.

But it is the debt move that could lay the foundations for the 2026 election platforms in Minas. If this agreement is indeed Pacheco’s main platform for the local dispute, the president of the Senate becomes Lula’s natural candidate for state government and clears up coordination within the PT to form his own ticket.

Pacheco is not the PT’s favorite candidate, but many of them understand that the president can also benefit from the alliance in his likely re-election campaign. Although the state was crucial to Lula’s return to Planalto, he did not set foot in Minas in 11 months of government.

Zema identified the early impact of these movements. The governor found himself sitting in the passenger seat of an agreement that could be decisive for the future of his administration and sought an improvised reaction.

After having his absence publicly criticized by Lula, he traveled to Brasília and decided to enter the negotiations. On Wednesday (22), Zema met with the president of the Senate and minister Fernando Haddad (Finance). Upon leaving the meeting with Pacheco, the governor said he agreed with the plan involving state-owned companies.

The debt negotiation directly affects the conditions that Zema’s group will have to face 2026. The Minas Gerais governor, in his second term, does not have a successor with his own strength to face the state dispute and depends on cash to deliver results that can pave the way a sponsored campaign in three years.

Zema’s political future, in particular, also depends on this issue. The businessman arrived at the Minas Gerais government with the promise of firm fiscal management to balance the state’s finances. Now, he manages a machine in ruins and is at risk of seeing a political opponent deliver a solution to the problem.

In this sense, Zema would lose a flag that he hoped to use to launch himself onto the national scene as a possible candidate for President in 2026, either with the support of Bolsonaro or as a kind of alternative to the right.

The position of Bolsonarism in Minas, in fact, would depend on Zema’s political conditions. If the governor reaches the next electoral cycle with limited strength, Bolsonaro would have an incentive to seek his own candidate for state government, outside the political field of his current ally.

Zema’s behavior in debt negotiations could create an additional edge. Bolsonaro is a politician who is guided by intolerance towards certain compositions – see the recent criticism of Tarcísio de Freitas’ (Republican) “slip-ups” in negotiations “with the left”. It wouldn’t be surprising if he painted the Minas Gerais governor’s support for the Pacheco and Lula package as treason.