Opposition sees golden chance with Bolsonaro ineligible – 06/24/2023 – Politics

The possible ineligibility of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) creates a golden chance to reorganize the opposition for the 2026 election, although it is still unclear who will lead the segment in the clash with President Lula’s group (PT), they say involved in the joints.

Bolsonaro began to be tried at the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) last Thursday (22) and may be prevented from running for eight years if the court condemns him for abuse of political power in the case of the meeting with ambassadors in which he lined up lies. on the Brazilian electoral system.

The trial will resume on Tuesday (27), with the votes of the TSE ministers.

Behind-the-scenes conversations between party leaders, politicians and strategists converge towards a gathering of sectors of the right that will not give up Bolsonaro’s support, but will seek to come to power with a more moderate and pragmatic position, exploring anti-PTism.

Three governors —Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), Romeu Zema (Novo-MG) and Eduardo Leite (PSDB-RS)— are mentioned as strong names, but none emerges as an automatic replacement for Bolsonaro, for different reasons. The role that the former representative will assume is also unknown.

The betting pool also includes the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD), former Minister of Agriculture Tereza Cristina (PP) and former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL).

For spokespersons for the conservative and liberal camps, his absence in the next election could open conditions for a ticket that goes into the fray without the shadow of Bolsonaro and his radicalized positions.

Success would depend, however, on structuring a minimum agenda of proposals, which demarcates differences with the left in the economic sphere and leaves the customs agenda in the background. The idea is to promote a kind of qualified anti-PTism, to avoid the risk of emptying the discourse.

The sources heard by the report consider that the construction of a new leader will still depend on which parties and politicians will emerge stronger from the 2024 municipal elections and the country’s economic situation under Lula in three years. The common assessment is that it will be necessary to unite efforts.

Tarcísio and Zema are mentioned in the context of characters who dialogue with Bolsonarism and at the same time have a more technical performance and less linked to confrontations.

They could lead the right that rose with Bolsonaro, but emphasizing economic liberalism and nodding to the conservative part of the population through shared values ​​such as family and religion.

In this sense, the bet is that alternative names to Bolsonaro can reach more voters, such as those of the center-right – as happened with Tarcísio, who won the toucan vote. The tendency is for presidential candidates to be tested until 2026 so that the right can group around the most viable.

In any case, allies of the former president do not underestimate his electoral capacity even if he is legally prevented from running. To say that he will be more useful as a campaigner than as a candidate has become almost a cliché.

Among Bolsonaro’s interlocutors, Tarcísio, who was his minister and remains an ally, is seen as a natural successor — but the former president’s strategy will be to avoid appointing an alternative name to remain on the political scene while betting on judicial appeals, as shown to Sheet.

The governor of São Paulo demonstrates that he should seek re-election in 2026 instead of targeting Planalto. Allies of both consider, however, that Tarcísio will not have room to refuse the candidacy if it is a request from the former president.

A former minister of Bolsonaro, speaking on condition of anonymity, described Tarcísio as the favorite of the political class that walked with Bolsonarism, for being more conciliatory and less prone to confrontations.

Bolsonarist deputies claim that Zema is an expressive name, but with less capillarity, and that it would make a good deputy. A former presidential candidate committed to the negotiations says that any of the governors who want to qualify for the run to the Planalto need to explore national agendas.

Ratinho, Leite and Tereza Cristina are seen as politically weaker. Michelle’s candidacy, in turn, is practically ruled out – it would not be a consensus in the Bolsonaro family. The most likely hypothesis is that she will run for a seat in the Senate.

In the case of the former Minister of Agriculture, her name is not considered today even by the president of her party, the PP. Ciro Nogueira (PI) said in a recent interview with Sheet that “politics has a queue” and that, in his opinion, Tarcísio is the first and Zema, the second, “because of the size of their states”.

The former president himself pointed out in March, when asked about alternatives for 2026, a vacuum of national leadership in the country. “There is a good governor in Minas, there is a good one in São Paulo, there are some good ones for Brazil too, some good senators, but [eles] they don’t have the national experience.”

Last Tuesday (21), in an interview with CNN Brasil, Bolsonaro avoided naming a successor. “I don’t consider that possibility [de ficar inelegível]simply that.” He proclaimed himself a representative of the center-right in Brazil and said that “there are good leaders emerging”, but none mature for 2026.

Tarcísio and Zema repeat the speech that their priority is the state government, not least because the viability of an eventual presidential candidacy depends on a showcase of measures and approval.

Among members of the Novo party, a party today more open to alliances with other acronyms, the understanding is that there is no chance for an opposition name if there is no unity. Those around the miner say that he will work for the formation of broad consensus.

For his allies, Bolsonaro’s absence from the national election opens space for conversations between presidential candidates and parties from the right and center.

The effort would be to add to the centre, the electoral dwarf in 2022 with the failure of the third way, the votes of the Bolsonarist right, creating a favorable wave for the opposition.

In the case of Leite, who today also chairs the PSDB and seeks to reposition the party as a relevant actor in the opposition, the answer about running for the Planalto in 2026 goes along the lines that the candidacy is an aspiration, but not a personal project, and that the priority is to build a core strength.

“If my name helps to unite, perfect. But if not, no problem, let’s help someone else who can lead this project”, he told Sheet in February. In April, at an event in Porto Alegre, he stated that he will not contribute to the division. “I want to be together with Zema, I want to be together with Tarcísio.”

Despite the statements, toucan allies claim that Leite would hardly be part of a joint presidential project that had Bolsonaro’s explicit support and brought together the radical right. The governor has preached the need for a project that offers an alternative to the polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula.

Observers admit, however, that the role of governors targeting the presidential race is ungrateful, as they need to soften criticism for depending on transit with the federal government.