My Reverse Apocalypse – 04/13/2023 – Reinaldo Azevedo

The Apocalypse has been famous for some time, at least. Reading this and that, I felt compelled, but I resisted predicting that the Lula government would end before it started.

The Transition PEC, approved in December, announced that the fiscally responsible manager who had come to power in 2003 had been left behind. The country would have to deal with an irresponsible, resentful, outdated spender, who set up a primary deficit this year of at least R$ 230 billion — or 2% of GDP. Fact: it should be below R$ 100 billion.

The economist of a private company who predicted a gap of “2.3x” in December, forcing himself to review the account, three months later, to less than “1x”, would take a foot in the back. Capital does not accept certain insults. When it comes to public accounts, however, the stupid mistake can make the reputation of an “independent analyst”, who does not let himself be entangled by the soft talk of rulers, unlike those “bloodhounds out there”…

Once sworn in, the president took aim at the “pornographic” (apud Josué Gomes) interest rate, and the trumpets of chaos sounded. There was no shortage of those who walked the fence of a possible impeachment. How is it? Future interest rates rose. The dollar soared — and the PT was even accused of manufacturing inflation, which would have to be corrected for the evil he was fighting. Lula continues to criticize the nonsense of a Selic rate of 13.75%. And yet the mood has changed.

Then came the fiscal framework. Although its structure imposed, as it does, an increase in expenditure lower than that of revenue, it was understood that it was lacking that component to show that it was not one of those populisms that fill the poor with benefits… expenses?” he roared. Which ones? That part is always missing. Would there be Congress to approve it?

“Uzmercáduz” are beginning to realize that this framework is actually quite conservative. The order of the hour is to attack the left of the PT, which would be making undue demands on Fernando Haddad, as if this were something foreign to party life. André Esteves, Chairman of the Board of Directors of BTG Pactual, foresees good times. Other bankers had already confided in me that they considered the text to be virtuous —with the exception that the final word will be for Congress. Rarely has so much pomp and arrogance gone wrong. Error is the generous hypothesis.

I just read one of those bilious texts pointing out that one of the evils of this government is the return of subsidized BNDES interest rates. In those three and a half months, nothing of the kind was celebrated. I hope it still comes. You know how it is, development bank… I’ll applaud or boo depending on who takes out the loan. Ah, yes: there remains the special interest to the agro. Are we going to finish him off? US and Europe resort to subsidies to defend themselves against Chinese competition in two ways: negative interest rates and money in the vein. With the “Chips Law”, Joe Biden put in US$ 52.7 billion of public money to attract companies to Arizona. Ask Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, known as TMSC. The, I don’t know what to call it, native “neoliberalism” will still compete with the Syriac Catholic Church on the criterion of “resistance localism”. With due respect to that church, not to our sect, which speaks economic Aramaic.

Additionally, it’s worth looking at the Chamber. The “centrão”, as it was known one day, is becoming something else. The real opposition to the government boils down to those exotic people who produce noise and embarrassment in the Chamber, which is leading to the formation of a group of “moderates” in the PL, which has the largest group (99 deputies), but does not belong to any bloc. . The PP of Arthur Lira and Ciro Nogueira is joining the PSB of Geraldo Alckmin and the PDT. But what about chaos?

The most famous foresight of the end of history is not Hegel’s. Nor that of Francis Fukuyama. Jesus, through John, made the most spectacular in the Book of Revelation. There are so many spells before a presumed new dawn, that “apocalypse” has become synonymous with what, after all, is really there: the end of times as known. Apocalyptic language is also a style and is not restricted to religious proselytism. The ideological is usually quite aggressive, leaving no room for doubt. Not even when “2.3x” becomes less than “1x”. Without even an apology for arithmetic whatsoever.

PRESENT LINK: Did you like this text? Subscriber can release five free hits of any link per day. Just click the blue F below.