Many of the factors that engendered June 2013 are plain to see – 06/11/2023 – Marcus Melo

The argument that Bolsonarism or January 8 originated in June 2013 or resulted from it reverses the direction of causality: it is not a cause, but a symptom. As I’ve discussed here, there are several factors involved, but we can rule out at least two.

The first is the economy. It is unreasonable to associate the demonstrations with the end of the commodities boom: the inflection began in 2012. Unemployment only exploded from the last quarter of 2014.

Inflation in 2013 (5.9%) was the same as in 2008. The primary surplus in 2013 was at the same level as in 2008, and would only plummet in 2014. The crisis had not yet set in and its effects were not yet perceived. It was a matter for experts.

The second would be the diffusion effect of an international wave (Arab Spring, Turkey, Occupy Wall Street). Here the unanswered question is why do protests occur only in certain countries?
What we had was, on the one hand, a mismatch between expectations generated by the boom and the possibilities of its realization (progressive deprivation, Gurr would say) as I have analyzed here; and, on the other hand, an institutional crisis of representation associated with the PT’s pattern of coalition governance. This forged the perception of a generalized collusion: a divorce between political actors and the electorate, in which the former turn exclusively to their own interests. The resulting civic cynicism produced ” que se vayan todos”.

The symbolic images of the “collusion” were the Haddad-Maluf handshake, sealing the alliance during the 2012 elections, months before the demonstrations; and pastor Marco Feliciano (who had become famous for his gay cure) elected with the support of the PT to preside over the Chamber’s Commission on Human Rights. “They don’t represent us.”

The timing of the monthly allowance trial was a decisive conjunctural factor. Broadcast live, in a court mostly appointed by the PT, it acquired enormous and unprecedented visibility. Two party presidents — Zé Dirceu, impeached in 2005, and José Genoíno — were sentenced to prison, a few months after the demonstrations. Although convicted, Genoíno takes office in the Chamber in January 2013, generating public commotion. His brother had an adviser caught with $100,000 in his underwear, an episode widely reported in the media. And there were so many others.

Corruption becomes a central issue on the public agenda. And obviously the opposition’s flag. The product of a CNBB and TSE alliance, the Lei da Ficha Limpa was nourished by this source.

Dioceses were the key to the 1.6 million signatures and unanimous approval by Congress! The 1,500 public hearings on the law held by the TSE ditto.

Many of the factors that engendered June 2013 are still in sight.

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