Lula’s appeal to vote for ‘team’ deputies failed – 06/03/2023 – Power

Saying that the fox has taken over the henhouse may be a way President Lula (PT) likes to describe the situation his government is facing, in the face of a National Congress dominated by opposing forces and willing to bar crucial measures for the Planalto.

The metaphor of the fox that eats the chickens was used in public by the PT at least nine times during the campaign to warn his supporters about the risk of having a Legislature hostile to the Executive. He also made an appeal for the election of more parliamentarians “from Lula’s team”.

Throughout 2021 and 2022, the president also said he knew that “the game is heavy” in the relationship with the Legislative and that “that’s where the bug catches”. “If we don’t build a majority, we will be weakened”, he said to supporters in a speech in Rio de Janeiro in March last year.

In today’s eyes, many of the speeches take on a prophetic character.

If “they vote for deputies who are against us, we’re screwed”, Lula reiterated to militancy in the capital of São Paulo, on the eve of the second round. “It’s like if you had a chicken coop and decided to put the fox in charge of the chickens. What would happen? The fox would eat the chickens.”

A week after the speech, the Brazilian electorate gave right-wing parties 50% of the seats in the Chamber (in the 2018 election, they were 49%), according to a survey by the Sheet. The left even had a gain —from 23% to 25% of seats—, but not enough to change the game. The center represented 27% and increased to 25%.

In the Senate, the picture was also favorable to the conservative camp, with 44% of those elected coming from right-wing acronyms (it was 35%). The left won 16% (compared to 15%), and the center shrank (from 51% to 40%).

Today, the base of the left, led by the PT, controls about 130 of the 513 seats in the Chamber. In the Senate, the parties on the left hold 16 seats out of a total of 81. In both Houses, the government closed alliances with the center and the right, but support varies according to the theme, which makes the situation unstable.

The concern expressed by Lula was also shared by the PT, which managed to increase the number of seats in the Chamber (from 56 to 69). The then-candidate even joked about the possibility that the left would one day elect the majority of deputies, but said he found “difficult to happen”.

Although he made the reservation that it is necessary to talk to those who were elected, regardless of ideological orientation, the PT demanded commitment for the election of those who had “historical commitment to the Brazilian people” and would contribute to his project.

“It’s not enough just to elect Lula president of the Republic, if we don’t change the quality of deputies and senators. We’re going to have to elect many deputies and senators who think the same as we do”, he called out in an act by the MST (Movement of Unemployed Rural Workers). Earth), in March 2022.

“It’s no use crying. If you don’t have numbers, we won’t do it”, he said the following month to colleagues from the CUT (Central Única dos Trabalhadores), when promising to revise the labor reform.

Political scientist Alberto Carlos Almeida claims that Lula made an attempt to increase the space of the left. “Thinking from his point of view, it’s better to run making this appeal than not saying anything. Could it be that, if he hadn’t said that in the campaign, would the PT have the bench it has today?”

For Almeida, one of the obstacles to convincing parliamentarians to vote with the government —and that did not exist 20 years ago, when the PT assumed the Presidency for the first time— is the pressure they suffer directly from voters via social networks. The degree of freedom is smaller.

“We have a conservative Congress that is no longer willing to give support as it was in the past. There is more modesty with the explicit give-and-take. Not to mention that right-wing voters, more polarized, are more demanding with their representatives, the which ends up making certain flexibilities difficult”, he says.

Main symbol of resistance to progressive flags, the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has already said that peers can vote with the government on projects in the economic and administrative spheres that obtain consensus, but the customs agenda will hardly have support .

“The left will have to exercise patience”, says federal deputy Kiko Celeguim (PT-SP), who also chairs the party in the state. For him, the government is wrong to want, for example, to change the sanitation framework —approved by Congress— and should focus on what is important.

“First it is necessary to create stability, to then advance more deeply in the agenda that was the winner at the polls.”

Celeguim, who uses the term “sweat” to refer to the painful votes faced by the government in recent weeks, claims that the performance of left-wing congressmen in the next elections could be favored by the results of the Lula administration.

“If we make the country grow, the tendency is to elect more regional leaders, which is reflected in the long term in Congress”, calculates the deputy, who attributes the performance of 2022, lower than expected, to the advantages that the then president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) conferred on his allies, with amendments and resources.

Political scientist Carolina de Paula, from Uerj (University of the State of Rio de Janeiro), says that the strengthening of the right in the Legislature has been gradual over the last few years, but took a leap forward with the Bolsonaro phenomenon in 2018. driven by resources and polarization.

“Lula had the expectation of helping the left to increase its weight in the composition of the Legislative, but it did not succeed. It is difficult to agree with the voter on a coordinated election for the two Powers”, he says, also noting that the agendas on the right have advanced in society.

Researchers have been saying that what is new is not the minority position of the left, but the changes in articulation that have been imposed in recent years, with a Congress anabolized by the payment of amendments and with greater bargaining power in negotiations.

For political scientist Bruno Schaefer, from the Brazilian Legislative Observatory, party fragmentation in the country is an impediment for an elected president to have a majority of his ideological field in the Legislature. “But there is also a dissonance between how people vote for one Branch and the other. In general, they are less concerned with Congress and more with the Executive.”

Schaefer, who is also a professor at UFRGS (Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul), says it is perfectly possible to govern with an ideological distance between the Planalto and the majority slice of Congress. “It requires agreements. What we have again is a right that is not willing to negotiate.”

Lula’s speeches about Congress before the elections

“We [PT] it needs to have a more representative bench, and the left parties too, the PSB, the PSOL, the PDT. To see if we can get the National Congress to approve the things that are necessary to make the changes that we all want to make in this country.”

on 3.Aug.2021, in an interview with the TVT network

“Don’t put a fox in the henhouse, it won’t take care of the chickens, it will eat the chickens. It’s not enough to elect a progressive, left-wing president. You have to elect a leftist president and elect committed people.”

on September 1, 2021, in an interview with the program “Triangando”, on YouTube

“It is not by electing just one president that we change this country. It is necessary to vote for deputies, men and women deputies, senators and senators who have a historic commitment to the Brazilian people, to Brazilian youth and to Brazilian sovereignty.”

on 17.Dec.2021, during the 5th National Youth Congress of the PT

“The ideal would be for the PT to be able to elect all the deputies; it will not happen. Perhaps the most important thing is that the left should elect the majority of the deputies. I think it is difficult to happen. So you negotiate with who is elected.”

on January 26, 2022, in an interview with CBN Vale radio

“During the elections, I’m going to ask for a vote for a deputy. You try to launch candidates for deputy, because we need at least half of good deputies, because otherwise we can’t get approval, we can’t get things done.”

on 19.Mar.2022, during a meeting with the MST (Movement of Landless Rural Workers)

“It is not enough to vote for Lula. It is important to take into account what is happening in Brazil. In addition to electing the President of the Republic, we have to elect deputies, men and women deputies, senators and senators. [no Congresso]we will be weakened.”

on 26.Mar.2022, during an event at PC do B

“If we do not change the National Congress, it is very difficult to imagine that we will be able to carry out the reforms that we need to carry out. Or rather, the counter-reform [trabalhista] that we need to do. It’s no use crying. If you don’t have numbers, we don’t do it.”

on 4.Apr.2022, during an event at CUT (Central Única dos Trabalhadores)

“In this campaign, I will give more importance to the issue of deputies than to the presidential campaign itself. It’s no use voting for a president of the Republic if you don’t vote for a number of deputies who think ideologically like the president, to make the changes you need.”

on 26.Apr.2022, at a press conference

“Don’t vote for a member of their class [da direita], because it’s the same thing as putting a fox in charge of the henhouse, thinking that the chickens will get fat; do not go. The fox will eat the chickens, and that’s what’s happening with the 2018 election result.”

on September 10, 2022, during a rally in Taboão da Serra (SP)

“If you vote for me for president and the [Fernando] Haddad for governor, and they vote for deputies who are against us, we’re screwed. It’s like if you had a chicken coop and decided to put the fox to take care of the chickens. What was going to happen? The fox was going to eat the chickens.”

on September 24, 2022, during a rally in Grajaú (capital of São Paulo)