Ipea blames Bolsonaro for the number of homicides not being lower in Brazil

The Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea), a federal government research body, released a study on violence stating that the homicide rate in the country fell 18.3% between 2011 and 2021, with the highest percentage of reduction, 26, 1%, was recorded between 2016 and 2021. The government body stated, without providing evidence, that the reduction could have been even greater, if the policies favorable to the population’s access to weapons promoted by the government of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) had not occurred.

The conclusions are in the Atlas of Violence in Brazil, released by Ipea, this Tuesday (5). According to the study coordinator, economist Daniel Cerqueira, the conclusion was obtained from the econometric methodology. According to him, it is a “method established in the international methodology of social research that we used, based on Brazilian data until 2021, to reach this conclusion”.

Cerqueira also highlights that the Bolsonaro government was “denial”, as it ignored “overwhelming international and national scientific literature showing that more weapons generate more crimes”. The denial of this scientific knowledge would have resulted in a greater proliferation of weapons, which led Ipea to conclude that, were it not for armaments, the homicide rate would have fallen even further.

The public security researcher and responsible for the Law and Security Research Center (Cepedes), Fabrício Rebelo, claims that the methodology is questionable. “We insist on the mathematics of the absurd, with the projection of homicides, renewing the “undead statistics”, to say that more people could be saved”.

The jurist and researcher states that the study uses a rhetorical device based on the discourse of infallibility, which seeks to convince those who have no knowledge on the subject. To this end, a rhetoric that is immune to error is created, which is not concerned with investigating the real effects of weapons policies on crimes, but which only wants to reinforce that, whatever happens, disarmament is positive.

“According to the logic of the study, if fewer weapons are sold and homicides fall, restricting the former saved lives; if more weapons are sold and homicides rise, it will be directly their fault; if gun sales fall and homicides increase, they say “it could be worse”; and when a lot more weapons are sold and homicides plummet, then they invent that they could have plummeted more.”

The study used data very similar to those that had already been released last year by the Brazilian Public Security Forum. According to him, in 2011, Brazil recorded a rate of 27.4 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. In 2021, this rate was 22.4 murders per 100,000 inhabitants.

Fallacious arguments are used to justify the disarmament of the population

According to IPEA projections, if the Bolsonaro government had not adopted weapons policies, the number of homicides between 2019 and 2021 could have reduced by 6,379 cases across the country.

Knowledgeable about the police reality and homicides in Brazil, federal deputy Delegado Palumbo (MDB-SP) disagrees with the institute’s conclusions. “I do not agree with this. It’s a fallacy. If that’s the case, we’re going to have to ban knives, we’re going to have to ban other objects,” he says.

In defense of CACs (Collectors, Sport Shooters and Hunters), who recently had restrictions imposed on access to firearms, Palumbo still argues that these limitations are also fallacious.

“They [defensores do desarmamento] They don’t carry out research on weapons that are in the hands of drug dealers, in the hands of gangsters, in the hands of organized crime. They want to disarm the population, subjugate the population and leave these people, who just want the freedom to defend themselves, without any rights.”

Thesis of hidden homicides distorts reality

Another point highlighted by Ipea researchers is the occurrence of hidden homicides, the so-called Violent Deaths of Undetermined Cause (MVCI). According to the study, between 2011 and 2021, 126,382 MVCIs were registered.

“In this scenario of high uncertainty about the intentionality of deaths, ignoring the occurrence of MVCIs can negatively influence diagnoses and the formulation of public policies and prevent interventions in sensitive aspects”, the document points out.

Based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques Machine Learning [Aprendizado de Máquina]Cerqueira and the Atlas researchers developed an algorithm that analyzes the characteristics associated with victims and the situational aspects of homicides, accidents and suicides to seek the reclassification of MVCIs.

Thus, the Atlas estimates that 39.1% of cases classified as MCVI, or 49,413 deaths, would, in fact, be homicides that could have been identified. The number is equivalent to an annual average of 4,492 cases.

According to Rebelo, the estimate not only does not match reality, but also attempts to change it. “In this edition, the study reveals the application of scientifically shameful methods, including an absurd attempt to change the past and inflate official homicide records, creating the label of “hidden homicides”, to combat the reality that the previous government experienced record simultaneous increase in gun sales and a drop in homicides.”

Data discrepancy between the Atlas and the Public Security Yearbook

The data from the Atlas presents discrepancies in relation to those from another publication that seeks to analyze the situation of violence in the country, the Brazilian Public Security Yearbook, published by the Brazilian Public Security Forum this year.

The cutoff offered by the Atlas ranges from 2011 to 2021, while the Yearbook already provides homicide numbers in 2022. According to Cerqueira, the difference occurs due to the sources used to compose both studies.

The Yearbook is prepared based on data provided by the State Secretariats and Institutes of Public Security and/or Social Defense, and by the Civil Police, which have greater agility in compiling and making this data available.

The Atlas is based on the Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan), from the Ministry of Health, which only provide data until 2021.

But the documents also show differences in the number of homicides each year. Distinctions in procedures and even nomenclature for classifying deaths justify this disparity. In 2017, when there was a peak in the number of homicides, the Atlas recorded 65,602 cases, while the Yearbook brought 64,078.

According to the Ipea study, the spike was the result of a war between the two main criminal factions in the country, the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and the Comando Vermelho (CV), which would have occurred between 2016 and 2017. In 2019, when there was the lowest homicide rate, the Atlas reports 45,503 cases, while the Yearbook reaches a total of 47,765.

2021 had the second lowest homicide rate since 2011

According to the Atlas, 2021 had the second lowest homicide rate since 2011, with 22.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, behind only 2019, with 21.7 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. Between 2011 and 2021, records indicate that 616,095 people were murdered, equivalent to the population of cities such as Joinville (SC) and Feira de Santana (BA).

The document draws attention to the occurrence of homicides based on race or skin color. In 2021, of the 47,847 homicides recorded, 77.1% were of black and brown people, or around 8 in every 10 deaths. The publication attributes the high incidence of violent deaths among the black population to structural racism in the country.

Even with the general reduction in the homicide rate in the country over the 11 years (18.3%), some states showed substantial increases in the period, such as Roraima (91.3%), Amapá (72.2%) and Piauí ( 65.6%). Between 2020 and 2021, the champions in the increase in violent deaths are also in the North Region, with Amazonas (34.9%), Amapá (17.1%) and Rondônia (16.2%), with Piauí, which is in the Brazilian Northeast, it showed a variation of 13%.

On the other hand, Distrito Federal (-62.7%), Alagoas (-55.6%) and São Paulo (-52.8) showed the greatest reduction in the homicide rate between 2011 and 2021. Minas Gerais (-44. 5%) and Paraná (-37.1%) also saw significant drops.

Different evaluation premises denote ideological bias

In relation to São Paulo’s rate, the lowest in the entire country, with 6.6 homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants in 2021, the Atlas makes a reservation about the “fragility of this data as representative of the State’s reality”.

According to the document, the fragility is due to “worsening quality of information on the rate of Violent Deaths due to Undetermined Cause (MVCI), which ends up hiding several deaths caused by aggression”.

According to the document, the states with the largest population, such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Bahia and Minas Gerais, would be responsible for 72.5% of hidden homicides in the country, although the median rate also indicates a high occurrence in Roraima and Rio Grande do North.

On the other hand, when commenting on the reduction in Paraíba’s index, of -34% between 2011 and 2021, the year in which the homicide rate per 100 thousand inhabitants reached 28.1 (more than 4 times the rate in São Paulo), Atlas adopted another line of analysis.

In the state, researchers highlighted the launch of the Paraíba United for Peace program in 2011, when the homicide rate was 42.6 per 100,000 inhabitants. According to the document, planning supported by diagnosis and guided by results was important for reducing the rate.

Furthermore, the personal role of the governor as the “guarantor and conductor of the policy” would have been decisive, as well as the “political continuity in the process, since not only the governors in these last four administrations belong to the same political group, as well as the Social security and defense managers remain among the professionals who helped in the formulation and introduction of the program in that state”.

In 2011, Ricardo Coutinho, from the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), took over the state government, to which he would be re-elected in 2014. In 2019, João Azevedo, from the same party, took over the state government, where he remains after re-election in 2022 .

“Regrettably, once again we are faced with material produced by a public foundation, that is, with public resources, establishing itself with a clear ideological bias, with the aim of forcing the acceptance of a narrative”, says Rebelo.