Ineligibility did not affect Bolsonaro’s popularity

Former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has planned to travel around Brazil in 2023, with the aim of remaining politically relevant, even outside the Palácio do Planalto, with an eye on next year’s municipal elections. And from what the receptions he has received wherever he goes indicate, the investigations against him at the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and the ineligibility imposed on him by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) were not enough to diminish the support of his most faithful followers. . On the other hand, Bolsonaro faced limitations in his ability to influence parliamentarians during a year of important votes in Congress.

One of the recent examples that demonstrated the former president’s popularity was the warm reception he received when he participated, in Bueno Aires, at the inauguration of Argentine president, Javier Milei. Upon arriving at the location, Bolsonaro was greatly applauded by Brazilians and Argentines who shouted his name and held Brazilian flags. The scenes contrasted with the absence of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who was invited to attend Milei’s inauguration, but declined the invitation due to friction between the two representatives and the prospect that his presence in an environment full of supporters of Bolsonaro and Milei could lead to an embarrassing situation, with boos.

Another recent event that showed Bolsonaro’s popularity was the awarding of the title of Cidadão Luzianiense, in the city of Luziânia (GO), on December 12th. Upon arriving at the city’s Sports Center, Bolsonaro was cheered by a crowd of supporters. Scenes like this were repeated in several cities he visited in 2023, such as Barretos (SP), Parnamirim (RN) and Belém (PA).

“His popularity is out of this world”, summarized the president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, in an interview with the newspaper O Diário, on December 16th.

Events were a test for Bolsonaro’s popularity

The cases above show that the Liberal Party’s strategy, led by Valdemar Costa Netto, of using Bolsonaro as the party’s main electoral leader for 2024 could have significant success in the next election. The acronym aims to elect a thousand mayors.

Since returning from a three-month stay in the United States at the beginning of the year, Bolsonaro has traveled to eleven states: Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo, Santa Catarina, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Pará, Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo. Excluding the visits he makes to the Federal District and surrounding areas, São Paulo is the state that the former president visited most. There were five visits to the capital and cities in the interior. In Santa Catarina and Goiás, they were three times; and Minas Gerais received the former president twice.

According to Costa Neto, the schedule could even be more intense, but Bolsonaro, for security reasons, only travels on airliners, avoiding chartered aircraft, for fear of an attack.

In addition to visits around the country, the former president’s presence within Congress is also seen by analysts as an important factor in maintaining his political relevance. At the beginning of December, for example, he participated in the launch of the Parliamentary Front in Defense of Civic-Military Schools, where he was welcomed by allies. The event was also attended by students from military schools, who were surprised when the former president greeted him.

In July, the civic-military schools program was discontinued as a federal policy by the Ministry of Education. However, governors such as Eduardo Leite (PSDB), from Rio Grande do Sul, and Tarcísio de Freitas, from São Paulo, announced that they intend to continue adopting the civic-military model in some units of the state public networks.

Popularity of former president does not prevent legislative defeat

The former president’s renown, however, did not prevent his party from suffering defeats in the Legislature. The approval of the tax reform in the Chamber is an example that not even the PL is fully aligned with the former president. With 96 deputies in the house, the PL contributed 20 of the 366 votes to the approval of the proposal in the first vote that took place in the House. When the proposal returned to the Chamber plenary, on December 15, the party again recommended a vote against it, but 15 deputies voted for approval.

Especially in the first stage of voting, Bolsonaro was one of the main critics of the proposal. He visited the Chamber and sent messages to parliamentarians warning of aspects that he considers negative in the tax reform. This pressure came to scare government officials and members of Centrão, as the former president’s influence on acronyms such as Republicans and PP was assessed as dangerous for the proposal’s progress.

The meeting held by the PL the day before the first voting session in the Chamber also set the tone not only for opponents, but also for allies who were supporting the reform, such as the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). At the time, the head of the São Paulo Executive was harassed by a member of the PL after Bolsonaro determined his opposition to the project.

Bolsonaro’s charisma overcomes loss of ineligibility

With the defeat in the 2022 elections, and losing his privileged jurisdiction, the former president was the target of investigations regarding his time in government. The Saudi jewelry case and the denunciation of his former aide-de-camp, Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, put the former president’s image in check.

However, recent public appearances seem to show that Bolsonaro’s figure has not been shaken among his supporters. An opinion poll released in August also showed that the former president continues, alongside Lula, to be one of the biggest political forces in the country.

The AtlasIntel survey, published on the 26th of that month, showed Bolsonaro with 40% of voting intentions in a new presidential election against the PT member, who obtained 48% of voting intentions in this survey. The survey also indicated that, for 50% of Bolsonaro’s voters, the former president’s support for another candidate would be relevant for them to choose who to vote for. And it also showed that Bolsonaro has a positive image for 43% of those interviewed.

For political scientist Elton Gomes, professor at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI), the former president’s charisma is an important factor in understanding why his popularity still remains despite the legal issues.

“Charismatic leaders are not usually seriously affected by judicial decisions. The most powerful example we can have is that of the current president, who was convicted and imprisoned for corruption and yet not only preserved his political assets but also expanded them. I think that, in a way, the same thing can be said for Bolsonaro, even if there are differences between the two leaders”, said the professor.

He also recalled that Bolsonaro knows that the conditions for reversing his ineligibility are small, but that he maintains political articulations to have bargaining power in negotiations for 2026.

“Bolsonaro has a very clear vision that he will not be able to compete again, at least for now. So he seeks to keep his figure alive in meetings with state leaders so that he can negotiate his support in 2026 for the candidate who will be tasked with representing anti-PTism. Furthermore, staying alive politically also has implications for your own security.”

In the assessment of political scientist Adriano Cerqueira, professor at the Brazilian Institute of Capital Markets (Ibmec), the accusations made against Bolsonaro had a reverse effect on his image.

“Bolsonaro is a popular phenomenon that persists, despite several negative news this year, several accusations, investigations aimed at undermining his popularity. But this loss of popularity did not happen, on the contrary, it is strengthening the support of Bolsonaro’s electorate around him. This is because the majority of his electorate thinks he is the victim of political persecution,” said Cerqueira.

Another important aspect for the analyst is that, despite the legislative defeats, the Liberal Party is managing to take advantage of the former president’s image to structure itself.

“What Valdemar wants to do, of course, is transfer this prestige from Bolsonaro to the party. In a way, he has already succeeded, by making the PL the biggest party on the right today. In the same way that the left has a reference party, like the PT, it is clear to me that Valdemar wants to do this with the PL. It is a short and medium term investment”, added the professor.

“Bolsonaro is a phenomenon in popularity and charisma, a person who causes great excitement wherever he goes,” said Valdemar Costa Neto in a recent interview with the newspaper O Diário. “I’m grateful to him because what he did for our party doesn’t exist,” he acknowledged.

Research methodology cited

The AtlasIntel survey was carried out at the request of CNN. The interviews were carried out on August 23 and 24, 2023, with 1,232 respondents. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The confidence level is 95%.