Indecisions and contradictions mark Lula’s third term

The many indecisions and contradictions that mark the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) ended up making his third term as Presidency of the Republic especially ambiguous and enigmatic. In the nine months since his inauguration, Lula has maintained a confrontational speech with opponents at the polls, becoming even further away from the conciliatory profile he allegedly wanted to achieve. In parallel, his personal and mandate agendas produced a series of imbroglios in the relationship with Congress, in the country’s international relations, in economic policy and even in the conduct of well-known banners of the Brazilian left.

For analysts and politicians consulted by People’s Gazette, the first and greatest difficulty for Lula to give coherence to his current mandate and eliminate the uncertainties that surround him is building a solid parliamentary base. At a time when the Legislative branch is gaining strength against the Executive, Lula presents himself as the main leader in the leftist camp and is unable to establish an effective alliance with the conservative majority in Parliament. Even giving space to hypothetically rival parties (PP and Republicans) in ministries, local authorities, state-owned companies and public banks, the government remains vulnerable to the Centrão’s moods and ambitions.

The perception that Lula 3 is, in practice, a government of “neither one thing nor the other” irritates not only the opposition, but also historical allies, such as the PSB, in addition to stimulating the appetite of supporters and the audacity of the “balcon of governability”.

In this sense, political scientist Ismael Almeida recalls that the trip of the PP and the Republicans to the Esplanada dos Ministérios has not yet been subjected to a “fire test”, capable of evaluating whether the ministerial reform resulted in some solidity for the parliamentary base of the Highland. “Everything now depends on the topic on the agenda. If, for example, it is a matter in which the Judiciary has taken the lead, the government will not be able to stop the revolt”, he warns.

For Almeida, party leaders seem willing to reaffirm the weight of Congress beyond its relationship with the Executive. Thus, the tendency is for Lula to reap the benefits of his “rented base” through positions only on economic issues, even with reservations.

“Since vulnerability to the Centrão is a structural flaw in the political system, regardless of who the President of the Republic is, what makes the difference is something subtle, such as showing weakness when pressured. In public, Lula tries to show control over the situation and even resistance to demands in Congress, but it is assumed that if he plays the pragmatic game behind the scenes, he can be successful and reap the expected results”, she observes.

Political polarization accentuates Lula’s contradictions

Professor of government relations and public policies at Ibmec-DF Arthur Wittemberg also sees difficulties for Lula to establish a definitive face for his third term due to the change in context, compared to 20 years earlier, when he assumed his first government. “Lula 3 deals with a much more complex world. In a polarized democracy, the country faces the challenge of balancing different demands, both internal and external, which are often antagonistic. It is in this scenario that the president’s ambiguities must be situated”, he assesses.

The first challenge, according to Wittemberg, is to equate the relationship between a more left-wing Executive and a more right-wing Legislature. By attracting Centrão representatives to the decision-making process, Lula is betting on a strategy that ensures a majority for important votes, even for issues of his ideological bias. “The unpredictability, however, is still expected to persist for months. On an administrative level, the recent changes on the Esplanada should continue for a while longer, with changes of teams. And an expected improvement in transparency should occur,” he says.

The comparison of Lula 3 with Lulas 1 and 2 has the economy as its biggest contrast. His economic team, led by Minister Fernando Haddad (Finance), promises to balance public accounts, bringing the deficit to zero in 2024. With total distrust of the market, the promise would be honored by measures that depend on Congress and aimed at increasing tax revenue, without any moderation on the rising expenditure curve. The ultimate objective, experts and politicians point out, is simply the search for fiscal space for investments with a more immediate and electoral reach. All without a clear governance model, oscillating approaches.

Environmental agenda and support from the West have reversed signs

In terms of international relations, Lula’s third term brings together the president’s greatest aspirations and also his clear contradictions, related to Western support and the environmental agenda.

The search for resources for the conservation of the Amazon to solve the climate drama conflicts with the desire to invest in oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon River – an agenda that faces opposition from members of the government itself, such as the Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva . At the Brics meeting (a group that brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in South Africa, Lula also criticized the “green neocolonialism” of developed countries, rejecting sanctions in the name of forest preservation.

In this issue there is also pressure from other demands from Northern states for economic development that contradict environmental and indigenous agendas.

On the other hand, by praising and sponsoring dictators, the president comes up against the positions of the European Union and the United States. Not infrequently, their statements in favor of initiatives by Russia and China, which are going through a tense moment in their relationship with the West, end up forcing them to issue denials, retreats and relativizations. Russia was isolated internationally by the West after invading Ukraine in 2022 and China has been fighting a trade war with the United States since 2018.

For Juan Carlos Gonçalves, political scientist and general director of the civil organization Ranking of Politicians, the president is committed to building a broad base of support for his third term, but in doing so, he causes confusion and reveals a lack of clarity about the direction it proposes for the country.

“It is crucial to recognize that 2023 is a very different time from 2003 and 2007, when the first PT administrations began. The social, political and economic context has changed a lot and we face significant challenges in maintaining balanced and coherent national and external relations,” he says.

He points out as clear proof of Lula’s lack of guidance in his diplomacy: the controversial trips, such as the visit to Cuba, where he faced issues related to debt default, and the criticism he made of the US economic embargo on the island soon after. , at the United Nations plenary, in New York. These inverted signals have been pointed out by conservative leaders in the US Congress.

Lula’s financial and environmental goals raise doubts

Among the many contradictions, Gonçalves highlights that a government that calls itself an environmental defender adopts subsidy policies for vehicles powered by fossil fuels, which raises questions about the real commitment to environmental sustainability.

Furthermore, despite expressing the intention of achieving zero deficit in public accounts in 2024, the PT administration at the same time demonstrates a willingness to spend excessively. “The contradictions are numerous and there is a lack of a cohesive and coherent voice within the government that can organize these constant changes of positions, providing clear and unambiguous speech”, says the analyst.

President Lula’s contradictions clash head-on with the speeches of Lula as candidate in 2022. He defends the representation of diversity in power even at a global level, but appoints white men to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and goes back in the ministerial composition, replacing women by men. This stance has already provoked public reactions of displeasure from the president’s supporters.

Lula promised transparency, but has made access to public data information, such as corporate cards and international travel, difficult, in addition to spreading misinformation. Finally, he advocated national reconciliation, but continued to propagate hate speech.