In the wake of the heat, ONS projects record demand for electricity in October

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Demand is expected to increase 6.2% in the month compared to the same period in 2022, which would be the highest value in the historical series for October. The level of hydroelectric reservoirs will meet the demand for energy, according to the ONS. The National Electric System Operator (ONS) estimates a 6.2% increase in energy demand in October compared to the same period in 2022. If confirmed, it will be the record for the month since the beginning of the historical series, in 2000. One of the reasons for the increase in demand is the higher average temperatures, despite the recent cold front in the South and Southeast/Central-West. However, the ONS predicts that temperatures in the North and Northeast should remain high, with little rain. In a report released this Friday (29), the ONS estimates that demand could reach approximately 77.5 average gigawatts (GWmed) next month. The city of São Paulo, the largest in the country, for example, has an average electricity demand that varies between 10 and 12 GWmed per month. Because of the heat, September also broke a demand record compared to the same month in previous years. “We had a period of strong increase in demand for cargo and the SIN’s response [Sistema Interligado Nacional] This growth was positive, with guaranteed service. We are paying attention to the coming months, especially the summer period, where average temperatures are expected to be higher”, stated the general director of the ONS, Luiz Carlos Ciocchi. Intense heat will be more frequent in spring and raises awareness of the risk of spills and heart attacks Reservoirs According to Ciocchi, the level of hydroelectric reservoirs guarantees that this increase in demand can be met. “We have a favorable general scenario, with reservoirs at good levels. The perspective is that, when we enter the rainy season, we will be in a much more comfortable situation than in previous years”, he declared. By the end of October, three of the four subsystems considered by the ONS will have reservoirs above 60%: South (95.8%); Southeast/Central-West (66.5%); Northeast (61.3%); North (57.6%). The typically dry period, with low rainfall, ends in October. According to the ONS, it should end with the highest water level in the reservoirs in the last 14 years. Due to the favorable scenario for hydroelectric energy generation, the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) announced this Friday (29) that there will be no additional charges on the electricity bill. Therefore, the tariff flag remains green for the month and is expected to remain so until the end of the year. When reservoirs are low and the ONS needs to activate more expensive thermoelectric plants, Aneel can activate tariff flags with a cost on the electricity bill, such as yellow, red 1 and red 2. See the cost of each one: Green flag (favorable generation conditions energy) – no additional charge; Yellow flag (less favorable conditions) – R$2,989 for every 100 kilowatt-hours (kWh) consumed; Red flag level 1 – (unfavorable conditions) – R$ 6,500 for every 100 kWh consumed; Red flag level 2 (very unfavorable conditions) – R$9.795 for every 100 kWh consumed.

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