Impasse in the processing of MPs threatens Lula’s governability

An impasse between the Chamber and the Senate over the processing of provisional measures (MP) is making it difficult to consolidate the support base of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and making his governability even more uncertain.

The cause of the imbroglio lies in the resistance of the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), to accept the proposal of the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) for the MPs to be considered again by joint committees of the two Houses , a rite that was interrupted during the pandemic. The impasse shows signs that it could last for at least another week, increasing the headaches of government leaders in Congress and Planalto organizers.

From January 1st until now, 24 were edited by the PT government, including the resumption of collection of fuel taxes and Bolsa Família payments, which are waiting in line to start processing.

Also in February, the Senate’s Board of Directors defined how the mixed committees of MPs signed by Lula should work, but the decision still needs the approval of the Chamber to take effect. Until December, in the government of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the texts were amended and voted directly in the plenary sessions of the Houses. Lira reacted badly to Pacheco’s decision to go ahead with the return of the normal rite without first consulting him.

The solution to the problem will require extra effort from the Planalto Palace. The president of the Chamber warned that he will still discuss the subject with party leaders for another week, emphasizing that there is no risk of loss of validity of the MPs.

As Lira does not have a deadline to put the draft prepared by the Senate to be appreciated by the Board of the Chamber, senators already wave with the chance of judicializing the issue. In practice, the gesture means an extra dose of tension for the base parties, increasingly dependent on the Centrão. The articulations will have to intensify to avoid greater damage to Lula’s plans.

Reinforcing Lira’s power to negotiate with Planalto, it is up to the Chamber in this legislature to appoint rapporteurs for the MPs, to the detriment of the Senate. Meanwhile, MPs continue to go to coordinate joint commissions, although none have yet been created. The last to be sent was MP 1164/2023, which recreates Bolsa Família.

Negotiations may dominate congressional agenda

Eduardo Galvão, director of the multinational public relations company BCW in Brazil and professor of Institutional Relations at Ibmec-DF, confirms that the tensions surrounding MPs commissions increase concerns about PT governance. That’s because, according to him, the composition of the support base in Congress “is not yet defined”, which increases uncertainties.

Galvão points out that there are still many spaces to be filled in the thematic commissions and in the second and third levels of the Administration, making the negotiating board remain armed. In addition, federal deputy Gleisi Hoffmann, president of the PT, the largest ruling party, has been heavily criticizing the actions of ministers, which aggravates the situation.

However, the expert understands that the government could benefit from the fact that some MPs are of interest not only to the Executive, but also to Centrão parliamentarians, since they involve the creation of positions.

In this sense, the recreation of the National Health Foundation (Funasa) and ministerial training are also priorities for the Legislature. For this reason, there is a risk that the legislative semester will boil down to the composition of collegiate bodies and the most urgent economic issues, leaving aside specific topics.

This perception is reinforced by the extended period of validity of MPs, which can reach 120 days, taking up a good part of the time for negotiations and voting. For this reason, there is a fear that Congress’ decisions will focus on the processing of MPs in commissions and deliberations in plenary, emptying the permanent commissions and spending half the year on this process.

Lira wants “alternative path”

As the measures begin to be voted on in the Chamber, the accelerated rite during the pandemic made Lira the most influential actor, both on the texts themselves and on their processing rhythms.

His refusal to yield becomes even more reckless when one knows that the beginnings of government are marked by a large number of provisional measures. With them, Lula recreated ministries, transferred the Financial Activities Control Council (Coaf) from the Central Bank to the Ministry of Finance and changed the tie-breaking rule for decisions of the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (Carf) in favor of the Union.

The Constitution obliges MPs to be analyzed by joint committees, with debates, public hearings and proposals to change the text by congressmen. But Lira warned, at the beginning of the legislature, that he is betting on an “alternative path”. The trend, say parliamentarians behind the scenes, is for the normal rite to become valid only for MPs edited only after signing the agreement between the Chamber and the Senate.

“Given the impasse between legislative houses, it cannot be ruled out that the controversy is taken once again to the STF, since in 2012 the court already positioned itself in favor of compliance with the constitutional device that provides for the analysis of MPs by the joint committees”, warns Miguel Gerônimo da Nóbrega Netto, professor of legislative process at the Getulio Vargas Foundation. He stresses that the Supreme Court released the direct analysis by the plenary in 2020 linked to the state of calamity of the pandemic.

The clash over the MPs occurs when Lira’s power also advances in the arrangement of blocks and parties in the Chamber.

The largest benches in the House are the PL, with 99 deputies, and the PT-PV-PCdoB federation, with 81, outlining the polarization between the Lula government and the opposition. But analysts recall that the merger or federation of the Lira PP with União Brasil, currently underway, will consolidate the dominance of Centrão, also defined by control over amendments to the Union Budget.

The analysts’ conclusion is that the PT government will have to use its power of persuasion to make its plans viable at the lowest possible political cost, but, for the time being, it is wasting time and capital of influence by insisting on the discourse of confrontation with the past administration.