How are foreign and domestic policies connected? – 04/16/2023 – Marcus Melo

With Lula 3, the pattern of Executive-Legislative relations is not yet consolidated, but there is a new element. If in Lula 1 and 2, the Executive predominated, and with Dilma, it clashed and failed, with Lula 3, the president’s posture is one of selective delegation, where foreign policy becomes an important and unprecedented variable.

Under Bolsonaro, we had a kind of hyperdelegation to congressional leaders, contrasting with the hegemonic pattern in PT governments, in which the party —favored by several factors— prevailed. The fragmentation was less than the current one, and the pivotal party of the government coalitions, the MDB, was the protagonist of the conflict. In the Dilma government, the pattern collapsed due to a combination of factors.

The MDB reacted to the president’s initiatives “to reduce its dependence on the MDB”, sponsoring, among other things, the (re)creation of new parties (PSD in 2011 and PL in 2015) —a strategy that Eduardo Cunha (MDB), then president of the Chamber, called it a “tabajara operation against the party”.

The confrontation undermined governability. At the beginning of the government, in 2015, the president of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, even returned the fiscal adjustment MP, forcing the government to revoke it. The outcome is known: impeachment.

The strategic choice with Lula 3 is segmented: delegating powers in terms of domestic policy and focusing on foreign policy, where “the easy fruits are to be picked”. This for four reasons. First, his strategic priority in his last term is to go down in history as a first-rate statesman, restoring his scandal-tainted reputation. Second, because it is at the international level that it has very important comparative advantages due to Brazil’s place in the global policy on climate change.

Third, the domestic scenario is too adverse to be successful due to fiscal constraints, but above all political constraints. Finally, the leftist turn and foreign policy would mitigate costs with its alliance base with ultraconservative sectors at the domestic level.

However, this strategy is failing. Domestically, the picture is still very uncertain. In Congress, the government still has no base. Lula repeats that there are people “very experienced in command of the government: former governors and parliamentarians”, underestimating his enormous vulnerability. Much more worrying is the risk of Brazil becoming an international outcast again. See the strong reaction to his statements. Brazil’s stance on the Ukraine War and China is alienating its key partners on the environmental agenda: the Scandinavian countries, Germany and the US.

Does the country want to pay the price for this adventure?

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