High demand for fossil energy threatens Paris Agreement – 10/24/2023 – Environment

Despite the advancement of clean energy, the demand for fossil fuels is too high to allow the achievement of the most ambitious objectives for containing global warming, highlights the IEA (International Energy Agency).

In its annual report, published one month before the COP28 climate conference, the IEA considers that, “in the current situation, the demand for fossil fuels must remain very high” to maintain the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era.

“Achieving an inflection of the emissions curve to contain warming to 1.5°C is still possible, but the path appears to be very difficult”, warns the IEA in the 354-page report.

“Despite the impressive growth of clean energy”, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to be considerable enough to raise the average global temperature by 2.4°C over the course of this century.

Stronger policies

The document was released just weeks before crucial negotiations at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference, which will take place in Dubai from November 30 to December 12.

“The transition to clean energy is underway around the world and is inevitable. It is not a question of ‘if’, but simply a question of ‘when’. And the sooner the better for everyone,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the AIE, when commenting on the report in a statement.

The report predicts that, by 2030, the planet will have ten times more electric vehicles in circulation and that the contribution of renewable energy to global electricity generation will approach 50%, compared to 30% today.

Investments in clean energy have increased by 40% since 2020, but “firmer policies are needed” to reach the 1.5°C target, highlights the IEA, which reiterates its call to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

“Taking into account the tensions and volatility that currently characterize traditional energy markets, claims that oil and gas represent safe and reassuring options are unfounded,” Birol said.

Recently, the oil exporting cartel, OPEC, stated that the world will still need fossil energy for many years.

Redouble cooperation

The IEA forecast that demand for gas, oil and coal will peak this decade.

In the scenario drawn up based on current policies, the contribution of fossil fuels to the global energy supply, which has remained at 80% for decades, will fall to 73% by 2030.

“Governments, companies and investors must support transitions to clean energy, rather than harming them,” added Birol, who cited the “advantages” of decarbonized technologies for security of supply, jobs and air quality .

In the race to fight climate change, countries must, in particular, “redouble collaboration and cooperation.”

“The urgent challenge is to accelerate the pace of new clean energy projects, particularly in several emerging and developing countries”, says the IEA, which calls for a five-fold increase in energy transition investments in these countries by 2030, not including China.

“The speed of emissions reductions will largely depend on our ability to finance sustainable solutions to respond to the growing energy demands of fast-growing economies,” Birol said.