From captain to corporal, now electoral – 06/23/2023 – Dora Kramer
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There is no one who does not take for granted the withdrawal of Jair Bolsonaro from the electoral races until the turn of the next decade. Either because of the action now on trial at the Superior Electoral Court or because of some of the other 15 questions that exist against him to be examined there, everything is heading towards the former president’s retirement as a candidate.
According to people who say they are faithful to him (trucks of doubts about the consistency of this loyalty), it is much better for everyone if he is a sponsor of candidacies. From captain to corporal, now electoral. According to this version, he would help preserve the anti-Lula electorate and not disrupt the right’s plans with his huge rejection.
Therefore, it is a scenario in which Bolsonaro is seen as a utilitarian. Someone who takes advantage of the advantages and discards the disadvantages. As a “facilitator”, he can move from election to election until he regains his right to run.
Eight years will have passed, an eternity in politics — where, we know, there is no vacuum. So much so that his situation was not even well defined and there was already talk of a replacement. Thus, there is no need to talk about Bolsonarism as it is said around to define who feels represented by the former president’s ideas.
The “ism”, applied to politicians such as Luiz Inácio da Silva and Getúlio Vargas, implies the existence of absent characteristics in Bolsonaro, a phenomenon of occasion.
Lula and Getúlio returned to power with a strong social base and, during the time they were on the plains, they remained references for a robust mass of followers.
We already see important segments of Bolsonaro, such as evangelicals and the military, wanting to distance themselves, in addition to moving to take his place.
The former president will help elect mayors in 2024, but in 2026 he will be supporting a protagonist who, losing or winning, will lead the right from then on.
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