Focus Bulletin: market predicts higher inflation in 2024 – 11/06/2023 – Market

Economists consulted by the Central Bank marginally adjusted their inflation projection for next year, the Focus survey showed this Monday (6), which did not present major changes compared to last week’s survey.

According to the BC’s most recent weekly survey, the market now sees a 3.91% increase in Brazilian consumer prices in 2024, against the 3.90% rate estimated in the previous bulletin.

For 2023, Focus kept its inflation expectation of 4.63% unchanged. For 2024 and 2025 the estimate is also inflation of 3.5%.

The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024, 2025 and 2026 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.

There were no changes in relation to the perception of monetary policy, with the basic interest rate, the Selic, still calculated at 11.75% at the end of 2023 and at 9.25% in 2024.

Regarding activity, economists continued to expect GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to expand by 2.89% this year and 1.5% in 2024.