Financial market analysts raise inflation estimates for 2024 and 2025

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Numbers were released this Thursday (15) by the BC. Expectations for economic growth in 2024 and 2025 were kept stable. Financial market economists marginally raised the inflation estimate for the years 2024 and 2025. The information is contained in the “Focus” report, released this Thursday (15) by the Central Bank. The survey heard from more than 100 financial institutions last week about projections for the economy. For this year, the projection rose from 3.81% to 3.82%. As a result, analysts’ estimates for 2024 inflation remain below the target ceiling defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN). The central inflation target is 3% this year, and will be considered formally met if the index oscillates between 1.5% and 4.5% this year. Special g1: what is inflation Understand: how inflation affects your pocket For 2025, the inflation estimate increased from 3.50% to 3.51% in the last week. Next year, the inflation target is 3% and will be considered met if it fluctuates between 1.5% and 4.5%. To define the basic interest rate and try to contain the rise in prices, the BC is already aiming, at this moment, at next year’s target, and also at 12 months until mid-2025. The higher the inflation, the lower the power people’s purchasing power, especially those who receive lower salaries. This is because the prices of products increase, without wages keeping up with this growth. Gross Domestic Product Regarding the result of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024, the financial market maintained its growth projection at 1.60% last week. GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country. The indicator serves to measure the evolution of the economy. For 2025, the economic growth forecast for the financial market remained stable at 2%. Interest rate Financial market economists maintained their estimates for the basic interest rate of the Brazilian economy for the end of this year and 2025. Currently, the Selic rate is at 11.25% per year, after five consecutive reductions promoted by the Bank Central. For the end of 2024, the market projection for the economy’s basic interest rate remained stable at 9% per year. For the end of 2025, in turn, the financial market maintained its stable projection at 8.5% per year. Other estimates See below other financial market estimates, according to the BC: Dollar: the projection for the exchange rate for the end of 2024 remained at R$4.92. For the end of 2025, the estimate remained at R$5. Trade balance: for the balance of trade (result of total exports minus imports), the projection decreased from US$76.9 billion to US$76.5 billion surplus in 2024. For 2025, the expectation for a positive balance rose from US$68.9 billion to US$70 billion. Foreign investment: the report’s forecast for the entry of foreign direct investment into Brazil this year fell from US$69.8 billion to US$66.5 billion. For 2025, the estimated inflow decreased from US$75.7 billion to US$74.1 billion. VIDEOS: economic news

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