El Niño increases risk of fires in the Amazon – 06/13/2023 – Environment

Deforestation alerts in the Amazon and in other Brazilian biomes signal the urgency of combating fire in the imminent dry season — when cleared vegetation is usually burned. This year, the situation could get worse with the arrival of El Niño, whose onset was declared by scientists last Friday (8).

The climatic phenomenon should accentuate the dry and hot season in the Amazon forest, increasing the risk of degradation due to fires.

specialists see the convergence of rising deforestation and the occurrence of El Niño as a “perfect storm” scenario for the destruction of the biome. Therefore, researchers claim that the country needs to speed up actions and regulate its national policy for fire management in rural areas.

The Ministry of the Environment, in turn, states that “after four years of dismantling environmental policies in the country, the new management of Ibama is prepared to fight and prevent forest fires”. The budget, according to the folder, grew 113% compared to the previous year.

Another necessary measure, scientists point out, is to concentrate efforts on combating forest degradation, a problem that usually follows deforestation actions and can lead to scenarios such as the point of no return, when the forest is no longer able to regenerate.

For experts heard by Sheetthe federal government’s big bet to reduce deforestation in the forest, the new PPCDAm (Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon), does not offer indicators and short-term measures to face fire.

That’s because the type of fire that causes the most damage to the Amazon rainforest, according to researcher Erika Berenguer, from the University of Oxford, starts now. It is the fire used by criminals as a “clean up” of deforestation.

“After the bulldozer enters and cuts down the forest, you leave the forest there to dry for weeks or months, until it burns”, he explains.

Berenguer points out that the season for this type of burning, in 2023, will take place in a warmer forest and with reduced rainfall in some points, risks that add to the effects of El Niño, which should advance in the coming months.

The phenomenon is marked by above-average warming in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. It changes the circulation of the trade winds, which run from east to west, carrying moisture and warmer waters from the coast of the Americas to Asia and Oceania. It is also associated with global temperature records.

In Brazil, there is a generalized increase in temperature, and an accentuation of hot and dry weather in the North region, which aggravates the risks of fire propagation in the Amazon.

“Our major concern is the increase in forest fires in El Niño years, because we see a significant reduction in rainfall, a warmer and drier forest. This facilitates the spread of fire”, reinforces Celso Silva Junior, professor of the graduate program in biodiversity and conservation at UFMA (Federal University of Maranhão).

Silva, who is a member of Ipam (Amazon Environmental Research Institute), says that 69% of the Amazon area is subject to drought. For him, 2015 and 2016, years of El Niño, were milestones of changes in the intensity of the phenomenon over time and indicate the risks that the country faces again now.

The MMA (Ministry of the Environment), in a note to the report, states that the hiring of more brigade members and two additional aircraft is in progress.

“The forecast is for an approximate increase of 18% in brigade members compared to 2022, with 2,101 working. Of these, 1,385 will work in the Legal Amazon (AM, AP, AC, RR, MT, RO, TO, MA), that is , a 15% increase in the number of brigade members expected in the states compared to last year”, details the folder.

In addition to these actions, the MMA says that “the area of ​​direct action by Ibama (federal competence) will be expanded to 50%, reaching around 300,000 km^two” and that “fire management practices will be carried out, such as prescribed burning, to minimize the occurrence of large fires”.

Forest degradation —with parts burned or wood extracted— is seen by researchers as damage that is sometimes more serious than deforestation. The scenario is like Swiss cheese: the satellites that map deforestation identify the treetops in an area (or the lack thereof), but fail to capture the holes in the cheese. The problem thus goes beyond the statistics.

“That’s when you have the change in the forest that we call degradation”, summarizes Berenguer.

Damage results in more CO emissions_two and the lack of capacity of the forest to act in climate regulation. Therefore, there are harmful effects, including on the health of populations in the region.

In a document by the Sustainable Amazon Network prepared in March of this year, specialists, including Berenguer and Silva, recommend the creation of degradation indicators and the definition of priorities based on them to protect the forest.

Another recommended point is the creation of an emergency fund to combat forest fires. These items, criticizes the researcher, were not considered by the Lula government (PT) in the new PPCDAm.

For Ane Alencar, director of science at Ipam, Brazil needs to reduce deforestation and the use of fire, especially in agriculture, identified as the main driver of deforestation.

“Reducing deforestation is number one. Step number two is reducing pasture burning, and that’s a matter of management and public policy.”

She explains that the main problem in cattle raising is overgrazing. The process overloads the soil when there is a concentration of cattle in a given region, without rotation.

With the exposed soil, the so-called pioneer plants, bushes and species with thorns sprout, which form what is known as “dirty pasture”. To clear it and make way for grass, producers use fire.

According to Alencar, communication with rural producers is essential, together with management, to reverse the use of fire in these situations. She defends, therefore, the approval of a national policy of regulation, which today awaits analysis in the plenary of the Senate.

_{The Planeta em Transe project is supported by the Open Society Foundations.}