Dollar operates on the rise and goes to R$5.07, after strong employment data in the USA; Ibovespa falls

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On Thursday, the North American currency closed up 0.19%, quoted at R$5.0501. The main stock index on the Brazilian stock exchange, B3, closed with an increase of 0.09%, at 127,428 points. Dollar opens lower Karolina Grabowska The dollar reversed the negative signal seen in the morning and began to operate higher this Friday (5), while investors analyze the payroll results, the most important report on the United States labor market. U.S. employers hired far more than expected in March while also raising wages. The strong result could cause a postponement of the cuts planned for this year in American interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank). Corporate news involving Petrobras is also on the radar. Ibovespa, the main stock index on the Brazilian stock exchange, B3, is falling. See below for a summary of the markets. Dollar At 1:36 pm, the dollar was up 0.42%, quoted at R$5.0714. See more quotes. The day before, the dollar closed up 0.19%, quoted at R$5.0501. With the result, it accumulates: increase of 0.69% in the week and month; increase of 4.07% in the year. Ibovespa At the same time, Ibovespa was down 0.36%, at 126,973 points. The day before, the index had closed up 0.09%, at 127,428 points. With the result, it accumulates: drop of 0.53% in the week and month; decline of 5.04% in the year. Understand what makes the dollar rise or fall CASH OR CARD? What is the best way to take dollars when traveling? DOLLAR: When is the best time to buy the currency? What’s moving the markets? The main data of the week came out this Friday, with the release of the payroll, the main North American employment report. According to the US Department of Labor, the country opened 303,000 jobs outside the agricultural sector last month. The number came in well above what was projected by the market. Economists consulted by Reuters, for example, predicted 200,000 job openings, with estimates ranging from 150,000 to 250,000. Additionally, February data was revised slightly downward, showing 270,000 jobs instead of 275,000. Analysts interviewed by Reuters say most companies were able to obtain lower borrowing costs before the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle, which gave them some insulation from higher rates and allowed them to keep their employees. Traders are pricing in a 62% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25 percentage points in June, and see two more cuts in 2024, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch tool. Throughout the week, speeches by Fed officials were also on the radar. On Wednesday (3), the institution’s president, Jerome Powell, reiterated that there is time to deliberate on his first cut in the country’s basic interest rate, given the strength of the economy and recent readings of high inflation. The data is mixed, between a lot of strength and points of relief for the American economy. On Wednesday (3), the ADP report showed that job openings in the United States’ private sector exceeded expectations in March, pointing to continued strength in the job market. 184 thousand vacancies were opened in the month, after 155 thousand in February. Economists consulted by Reuters predicted the creation of 148,000 jobs last month, compared to 140,000 reported before the review in February. On Thursday (4), the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected during the week, a sign that labor market conditions are easing. Initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 in the week ended March 30 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000. Economists consulted by Reuters predicted 214,000 applications last week. In Brazil, the Central Bank held an additional currency swap auction worth US$1 billion at the beginning of the week. This was the first non-rollover intervention by the authority in the foreign exchange market since the end of 2022. Despite the BC’s justification that it was an auction to guarantee liquidity to pay the maturity of dollar bonds, some analysts still attributes the action solely to the fact that the American currency jumped 0.86% last Monday, to its highest closing value since October 13th of last year. The internal agenda contained little relevant data. Industrial production (PIM), from IBGE, registered a drop of 0.3% in February compared to the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, production rose 5%. Expectations in a Reuters survey of economists were for an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis and 5.6% on an annual basis. In corporate news, attention was focused on Petrobras, after new rumors emerged on the market that the president of the state-owned company, Jean Paul Prates, could be fired from the company and replaced by the current president of BNDES, Aloizio Mercadante. Despite this, the Lula government decided to pay part of Petrobras’ dividends, an issue that was the subject of a crisis with Prates. According to Julia Duailibi’s blog, half of the dividends will be paid, a value of around R$20 billion.

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