Digital popularity: Tarcísio leads; Raquel overcomes Zema – 04/12/2023 – Politics

The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), is the one with the greatest digital popularity among his peers at the head of state administrations.

This is what the DPI (Digital Popularity Index) shows, calculated daily by the research and consulting firm Quaest.

Behind Tarcísio, the governor of Pernambuco, Raquel Lyra (PSDB), stands out as a highlight in popularity on the internet, who had a sharp rise in the indicator between March and April, after meeting with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

With this increase, it surpassed Romeu Zema (Novo), from Minas Gerais, who until then held the second highest IPD among state managers and had a sharp drop in the index.

In fourth place, figure Eduardo Leite (PSDB), who demonstrates difficulty in establishing a position in the ranking.

The index, which ranges from 0 to 100, is calculated using an artificial intelligence algorithm that collects and processes 152 variables from Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Wikipedia and Google platforms.

Five dimensions are considered in the final score: fame (number of followers), engagement (comments and likes per post), mobilization (shares), valence (proportion of positive and negative reactions) and interest (search volume).

The weight that each dimension has in the account is determined by a model assimilated by the machine from the real results of previous elections, with thousands of candidacies monitored by the company.

The data show that the four governors in the lead are those most likely to achieve national projection.

Elected with the support of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), but trying to get away from the stigma attached to the former president’s most radical supporters, Tarcísio appears well ahead of the others in his management in the most populous state in the country.

In one hundred days that saw a disaster on the coast, a subway strike and an attack on a state school, the DPI for the governor of São Paulo fluctuated between 73.8 in January and 75.6 in April.

Throughout the period, the governor tried to avoid major controversies and had the moment of greater visibility during the relief to the coast in a partnership with Lula.

His exposure in the episode, with a vest and his feet in the mud, was diagnosed by those around him as positive for his image.

When hammering at the Rodoanel auction, he went viral on the internet, but the scene divided opinions, with detractors classifying the gesture as a sign of imbalance.

Datafolha research shows that its management is evaluated as excellent or good by 44% of the population and as regular by 39%, while 11% consider its performance bad or terrible.

Raquel Lyra, in turn, also tries to balance herself among the different strata of the electorate, although in a different context from Tarcísio, who had a direct connection with Bolsonaro.

In an election marked by a personal tragedy, the sudden death of her husband at the age of 44, she won the election after declaring neutrality in relation to the presidential race.

In government, the dichotomy remains. At the same time that she has an intense dialogue with the PT government, the manager has allied herself with Bolsonaro’s PL.

But it is to the joint event with Lula in Recife in March that Guilherme Russo, director of research at Quaest, attributes the rise of the governor to the IPD. At the event, the president reacted to Lyra’s boos and asked his guest for “respect”. Between February and April, the governor’s index rose from 34.5 to 44.6.

Raquel’s good timing coincided with a month of unpopular news for Zema.

At the end of March, the governor of Minas Gerais asked the Legislative Assembly to increase his own salary and also those of the deputy governor, secretaries and assistant secretaries of state by up to 258%.

His DPI, which in February was 42.8, rose to 36 in April.

Eduardo Leite’s situation, in turn, illustrates the difficulty of consolidating a non-Bolsonarist opposition to Lula.

The gaucho started the year with an IPD of 39.6 and reached the hundred days of management with an index of 26.4.

In an interview with Sheet in February, after assuming the presidency of the PSDB, he stated that “the moment is not easy, but perhaps it has never been so important for us to strengthen and have the PSDB on the national political scene.”

Governor of Pará, Helder Barbalho (MDB) appears with a score close to that of Leite in the April IPD (24.9), but has little national projection.

Behind him with 24 points, the governor of Santa Catarina Jorginho Mello (PL) is another representative of Bolsonarism on the list.

The sharpest fall between March and April is that of Governor Fátima Bezerra (PT-RN). Its DPI dropped from 25.4 to 18.1 in its 100th day, after the state went through a wave of attacks on public buildings, banks, vehicles and stores.