Digital popularity: Lula retreats, and Bolsonaro gains momentum – 04/11/2023 – Politics

The digital popularity of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) plummeted after his disastrous statement about Senator and former judge Sergio Moro (União Brasil-PR). Former president Jair Bolsonaro’s (PL) increased with his return to Brazil on the 30th, but follows behind that of the PT.

The data are from the DPI (Digital Popularity Index), calculated daily by the research and consulting firm Quaest.

The movement of the indicator shows a scenario that has not yet been consolidated. On the one hand, right after the speech about Moro, Lula recovered part of his popularity on the internet amidst the celebration of the 100th day of his government.

On the other hand, Bolsonaro had a downward swing days after his return, which shows his difficulty in remaining in evidence in the opposition.

Currently, the two have a difference of 17 points on the IPD, which ranges from 0 to 100.

This distance reached its highest level in the year (62 points) on January 9, the day after the attack on democracy with depredations in the three Powers, in Brasília. And it reached the lowest level (nine points) on April 3, when Bolsonaro was still reaping the rewards of his return after three months in the United States.

Currently, the petista scores 57 points on the IPD, and the former president, 40.

The index is calculated using an artificial intelligence algorithm that collects and processes 152 variables from Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Wikipedia and Google platforms.

Five dimensions are considered in the final score: fame (number of followers), engagement (comments and likes per post), mobilization (shares), valence (proportion of positive and negative reactions) and interest (search volume).

The weight that each dimension has in the account is determined by a model assimilated by the machine from the real results of previous elections, with thousands of candidacies monitored by the company.

The peak of the PT in the IPD since the beginning of the year was precisely on January 9, after the coup attacks in Brasília, when it reached 83 points.

The score reached its lowest level (44) on March 22, the day the Federal Police took action to dismantle a plan by the PCC criminal faction to carry out attacks against authorities, including Moro.

On the same day, Lula said he thought the PCC’s plan to attack the former judge of Operation Lava Jato was “a setup” by Moro. This plan was described by his own Minister of Justice, Flávio Dino, and the target of a Federal Police operation with at least nine suspects arrested.

The day before, Lula’s digital popularity had already plummeted with the interview in which he said that, when he was arrested in Curitiba, he used to tell prosecutors that he would “fuck this Moro”.

Opposition parliamentarians tried to associate the PCC’s plan with the PT’s speech, despite there being no evidence linking the cases.

Members of the government and allies in Congress rejected the call and stated that the PF operation was a demonstration that the institution was now republican and was no longer equipped.

Amidst the disclosures about the 100 days of government, the PT regained its digital popularity.

In a move contrary to that of Lula, Bolsonaro had collapsed in the IPD after the coup act by his supporters in Brasília and recovered the level of the beginning of the year with his return to the country.

But it remains to be seen whether he can keep up the pace. Early indications point to no. The president has already lost five points in the IPD days after the peak of the return.

“The question for Bolsonaro is: does he want to be the leader of the opposition? If he wants to, he will have to guide the debate”, says Guilherme Russo, research director at Quaest.

On the other hand, he recalls that the former president faces a series of investigations in Brazil, which could be an obstacle for him to appear much.

In the STF (Federal Supreme Court) alone, six investigations investigate Bolsonaro’s conduct that may constitute crimes. In addition, there are 16 other actions in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) that can make you ineligible.

There are also more than a dozen requests for an investigation against Bolsonaro that were sent by Supreme Court ministers to the first instance of Justice, due to the loss of the special forum with his departure from the Presidency.

In the case of Lula, Russo assesses that it will not be so simple to maintain digital popularity either, since, after the first three months of government, the population tends to demand more management, which will be more susceptible to the results of the economy.

After a tight election, in which he won his rival by just 1.8 percentage points, it will not be so simple for the PT candidate.

Earlier this month, a Datafolha poll showed that Lula reached the first three months of his term with 38% approval and 29% disapproval.

The result shows disapproval of the president equal to that registered by Bolsonaro at the same time of his government, in 2019, repeating what was the worst performance since the 1985 redemocratization among presidents in the first term.

The PT’s 29% bad/very bad score is also equal to the worst moment of all his first eight years in government, in December 2005, still under the fire of the monthly allowance.