Datafolha: Lula is approved by 37% and disapproved by 27% – 06/17/2023 – Power

Almost completing six months of his term, President Lula (PT) maintains his approval stable. 37% consider that he makes a great or good government, while 27% assess it as bad or terrible. For 33%, the petista is regular, and 3% did not give an opinion.

This is what reveals a new survey by Datafolha, carried out in 112 municipalities with 2,010 voters. The survey has a margin of error of two points, more or less, and was carried out from Monday (12) to Wednesday (14).

Compared to the previous measurement, carried out on March 29 and 30, the numbers vary only within the margin of error. After three months in office, Lula had 38% approval and 29% disapproval, being seen as regular by 30%.

In relative terms, the numbers bring good and bad news for the PT, who took on his third term in January.

Starting on the negative side, they repeat the worst performance of a representative elected in the first term since the 1985 redemocratization and, to the dismay of the militancy, emulates the performance of the rival defeated last October, Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

At this point in his term, the former president had 33% approval, 33% disapproval and 31% regular evaluation. Using the limits of the margin of error, it is a technical draw with a slight numerical advantage for Lula.

But the PT loses to Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) in 1995 (40% excellent/good, 40% regular and 17% bad/very poor), to himself in 2003 (42%, 43% and 11%) and for the successor, Dilma Rousseff (PT), in 2011 (49%, 38% and 10%).

Comparing with his performance after the 2006 re-election, which cannot be done directly as it is a continuity government, he also loses: at this point in 2007, he had 48% approval, 37% regular and 14%, disapproval.

As the cliché goes, surveys are photographs. FHC was re-elected and completed his term, Dilma won the second election and was impeached two years later, Bolsonaro did not beat Lula.

But photos say something about political reality, and that’s where the positive field for the president comes in. His government faces a political crisis in chapters, somewhat agonizing, but with apparently zero repercussions on the electorate.

Lula is experiencing a clash with the Chamber, led by Arthur Lira’s centrão (PP-AL), which has already brought him all sorts of difficulties and which should oblige him to make changes in the ministry to please new allies. Not to mention issues farther from the electorate, such as the PT’s criticized foreign policy movements.

None of this significantly improved or worsened his rating. On the contrary, the stratification of the approval data shows that everything continues as before in the realm of Brazilian polarization.

Those with lower incomes (up to 2 minimum wages, 43% excellent/good), less educated (47%) and people from the Northeast (47%) are more approving of Lula. In this last group, even within its larger margin of error (4 points), there was a more significant negative oscillation in approval: 6 points compared to March.

The disapproval of the petista grows in known groups. Of those who earn from 2 to 5 minimum wages, the so-called lower middle class, and among residents of the Midwest, 34% disapprove of Lula. Among evangelicals, 37%, and among the wealthiest minority (4% of the sample) (more than 10 monthly minimums), 49%.

The survey shows a greater deviation in Lula’s evaluation curve among those who earn from 5 to 10 minimum monthly payments (R$ 6,600 to R$ 13,200). In the group, there was the biggest drop in failure, 15 percentage points compared to March (47% to 32%). Even considering that the margin of error in this subgroup is higher, at 7 percentage points, it is remarkable.

The question was not asked, but a news event that may have drawn attention to this more affluent stratum in the period was the discussion that led to a drop in the price of some car categories. But this is speculative.

Relative good news for the economy, such as the initial approval of the fiscal framework by Congress, the fall in the dollar price or the improvement in the country-risk perspective, remain abstract for most of the population. Here, the stability in the unemployment rate (8.5% in the first quarter) speaks better with Lula’s unchanged numbers.