CPMI of January 8 extends power of Arthur Lira

The Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) that was created on Wednesday (26) to investigate responsibilities and omissions for the acts of vandalism that occurred on January 8 still faces several uncertainties. From its composition to its command, passing through the government and opposition strategies, many questions still remain to be clarified. However, despite all the uncertainties, it is already possible to predict that the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), will be strengthened with the creation of the collegiate.

Experienced and daring politician, Lira should use the significant influence among the deputies to continue occupying all the spaces of power that the government cedes. Analysts and politicians heard by the People’s Gazette confirm the tendency for him to accumulate more power within Congress and with the Planalto, thanks to his capacity to guarantee the rhythm of the economic agenda in the Legislative, to contain the excesses of the polarization between left and right and, finally, to overcome eventual dispersions throughout the activities of the joint commission.

Juan Carlos Gonçalves, director general of the Ranking dos Politicians, believes that these characteristics will give Lira a leading role in the CPMI, a collegiate body “whose fundamental mission will be to clarify facts and elucidate narratives”. “We know how a CPI starts, but never how it ends, the saying goes. Therefore, certainly, the commission will also serve as a negotiation tool between the president of the Chamber and the Planalto”, he said. The institution led by Gonçalves classifies federal parliamentarians according to their commitment to combating privileges and corruption.

The CPMI will last for six months, ending in October, and should capture the attention of Congress and society at various times throughout this period. While parliamentarians more closely linked to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will lead the most heated clashes in the commission, with strong media repercussions, Lira tends to emerge from the noise as a conductor of processes that guarantee the deals you make with allied base negotiators.

Lira gains relevance with the risk of the CPMI overshadowing debates on important projects, such as the new fiscal framework and tax reform, which are the government’s main bets for the sustainable recovery of the economy. Not by chance, he declared shortly before the confirmation of the collegiate by the joint session of Congress that the voting schedule would not suffer any delay. His guarantee is backed by the largest block in the Chamber, headed by his PP and comprising 173 deputies from nine parties.

The superblock created by Lira was a reaction to another, which became the second most numerous, with 142 parliamentarians. Both arrangements aim not only to guarantee more spaces of power in the structure of the Legislative, but also to expand the bargaining power with the government. The consolidation of the two dominant blocks formed from the Centrão with subtitles from the base guarantees the special articulation role of the Mayor. In the end, the poles represented by Lula’s PT and Bolsonaro’s PL are isolated.

According to deputy Marcel Van Hatem (Novo-RS), the participation of Lira and the centrist parties in the CPMI will be crucial, especially in choosing the presidency and rapporteurship, as well as in the selection of commission members. The lawmaker believes that, with representatives from both the government and the opposition on the commission, the centrist parties can help to balance the forces, ensuring a fair and impartial investigation.

“It is critical that the truth be exposed to identify and punish all those involved in acts of vandalism, including absentee district and federal authorities. In addition, it is necessary to guarantee justice for those who were arrested without due process of law and had their rights violated, as provided for in the Constitution”, he detailed.

The fragility of the governing base in the Chamber is exposed

Arthur Wittenberg, public policy professor at Ibmec-DF, argues that the CPMI will increase Lira’s power, not only because of his strong influence in the largest block in the Chamber, but also because of the less favorable political situation in the House, which is more centre-right in theory and has the opposition leading important committees in practice. This situation makes Lira gain importance, considering that the majority of the Senate is already in government and, therefore, requires less negotiation.

In addition, Wittenberg points out that Lira created three CPIs in the Chamber – the MST, the Americanas and sports betting – shortly after losing the arm wrestling match to the Senate on the composition of the mixed commissions, in order to increase its power and relevance in relation to the Planalto.

Accounting for a majority of 21 of the 32 CPMI seats, including obtaining an extra seat in the Senate through a maneuver that involved moving the Network from one party bloc to another, the government seeks to corner the opposition. His line of argument will be that Bolsonaro was primarily responsible for the acts of vandalism that took place in Praça dos Três Poderes. The opposition, in turn, intends to defend the thesis that, in addition to the government’s failure to respond to intelligence alerts, there were also actions that increased the damage caused by the invaders.

Therefore, the priority of Planalto organizers has been, since the beginning, to place allies in the presidency and in the collegiate rapporteurship, but even that depends essentially on Lira. The first restriction imposed by the president of the Chamber in the formation of the CPMI involves the appointment of the rapporteur by the majority in the Senate, vetoing the name of Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL), his biggest rival in the state of Alagoas, which gave a new tone to the negotiations .

In addition, the nomination for the chairmanship of the parliamentary investigation committee must come from the Lira group. Arthur Maia (União-BA) is the favorite to assume the role, after another ally of the mayor, André Fufuca (PP-MA), withdrew from running for the CPMI presidency. The nomination of the deputy from Maranhão did not please the opposition, seen as an ally of the Minister of Justice, Flávio Dino (PSB-MA), who will be one of the main targets of the opposition during the investigations.

In an effort to limit radicals and not fail to meet the government and opposition in a conditioned way, Lira has extracted unusual advantages for occupants of her position in the Republic.

Opposition votes are also the target of ambitions

According to Marcus Deois, director of Ethics Intelligence, Lira’s influence also grows with the Chamber’s bench linked to Bolsonaro, centered on the PL. He cites the installation of the MST’s CPI as an example. “As they are numerous, Lira recognizes the importance of securing their future votes, making concessions in return”, he replies.

He recalls that the CPI das Americanas is also a demand from parties such as the PP, PL and Republicans, from wings more linked to the defense of economic liberalism, although it also has the support of some government deputies.

“Such a move gives Lira a trump card to ask favors of these two groups. He can use favor to approve the bill of fake news or, later, in Provisional Measures (MPs), which will need a quorum to show their strength and convergence in the Chamber”, he completes.

In turn, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), is aligned with the government, but does not seem interested in new friction with Lira.