China releases GDP this week; know what to expect – 04/16/2023 – Market

Chinese economic growth will be in the spotlight this week when Beijing releases first-quarter Chinese GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data – and markets are primed for a strong reading.

Customs data released on Thursday showed Chinese exports rose nearly 15% year-on-year in March, breaking a five-month run of contraction and posting a substantial jump where economists had expected a 7% drop.

This, combined with activity readings in the manufacturing and services sectors, reinforced expectations for the first quarter GDP, which should be published on Monday night (17), surpassing recent forecasts.

A median forecast from analysts polled by Bloomberg points to expectations of a 3.9% year-on-year increase. But some economists put the number substantially higher – such as those at Standard Chartered, who expect growth of up to 4.9%.

Markets will also be on alert for higher-than-expected March readings on China’s industrial production and retail sales, which are expected to post annual growth of 4.7% and 8% respectively.

“First quarter GDP data next week will reflect the extent of recovery from China’s reopening,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ. Goh added that the strong readings from the latest Chinese purchasing managers’ indexes “certainly point to an upside risk to the Q1 GDP data.”