Cases of prostate cancer are expected to double by 2040 – 04/04/2024 – Health

The aging of the population is expected to drive the incidence of prostate cancer worldwide in the coming decades. According to scientists, records of new cases of the disease are expected to jump from 1.4 million in 2020 to 2.9 million by 2040. In the same period, researchers project an 85% increase in deaths from the disease, which will approach 700 thousand occurrences per year.

The estimate is part of a new study published this Thursday (4) by the scientific committee of The Lancet magazine, developed with the support of the UK Cancer Research Institute. According to the authors, the tendency is for the disease to grow faster in low- and middle-income countries.

“As more and more men around the world reach middle age and old age, there will be an inevitable increase in the number of prostate cancer cases. We know this increase in cases is coming, so we need to start planning and taking action now,” says Nick James, lead author of the study.

The specialist highlights the importance of early detection and education programs to mitigate the impacts of the disease. “This is especially true for low- and middle-income countries, which will bear the overwhelming brunt of future cases,” adds James.

The Lancet commission points to the urgency of expanding the capacity for surgical and radiotherapy care in these countries. Today, one of the main barriers to treating patients is the lack of specialized services and professionals. According to the study, the implementation of regional centers could provide the necessary infrastructure to increase training and improve access.

The main risk factors for prostate cancer are age and family history. Men over 50 are especially affected, and people with close relatives who have had the disease are also at increased risk.

The commission also warns of the need to improve testing and awareness mechanisms. In addition to the digital rectal exam, prostate cancer can be detected by the PSA test, carried out by analyzing a blood sample. Confirmation of the disease depends on performing a biopsy.

“With prostate cancer, we cannot wait for people to feel sick and seek help – we must encourage testing in those who feel well but who are at high risk of disease to detect lethal prostate cancer early,” says James .

Prostate cancer in Brazil

Inca (National Cancer Institute) estimates that 71,730 new cases of prostate cancer will be registered per year in Brazil between 2023 and 2025.

According to the Ministry of Health’s Mortality Information System, the disease killed 16,292 people in 2022 — approximately 44 deaths per day.

According to doctor Maurício Dener Cordeiro, coordinator of the uro-oncology department at the Brazilian Society of Urology, in addition to aging, the greater exposure of the population to other risk factors favors the tendency for an increase in cases of the disease. “Smoking, alcoholism, obesity, sedentary lifestyle. These factors, over time, increase the incidence of numerous neoplasms, including prostate cancer”, he states.

Despite the availability of the PSA test and treatment through the SUS (Unified Health System), Cordeiro assesses that access for the population is still insufficient, especially in inland regions, where cancer centers are rarer.

One of the effects of this lack is that a significant proportion of cases are discovered late. According to Cordeiro, who coordinates the uro-oncology department at Icesp (São Paulo State Cancer Institute), the largest oncology center in the country, 60% of patients operated on at the unit already have the disease in an advanced stage, with a higher risk of require radiotherapy.