Broken promises and frustrations bury Lula’s broad front

In just over two months in office, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) lost the support of almost all the prominent names in the so-called third way, who had bet on him to defeat his rival Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the elections of 2022. Former Senator Tasso Jereissati (PSDB-CE) was the last to publicly declare his disappointment with the PT’s non-aggregating posture, which resists leaving the electoral platform and promotes economic management inspired by the failed model of the former President Dilma Rousseff (PT).

“The expectation was that Lula would come willing to make a government for everyone, but that did not happen. We are seeing an even angry Lula at certain times. He himself said that it was necessary to end the “us against them”. It wasn’t a “Lula Mandela”, it was an anti-Bolsonaro Lula”, commented Jereissati this Monday (6) to the newspaper The State of S. Paulo. He regrets, above all, the attacks by the Chief Executive against the President of the Central Bank (BC), Roberto Campos Neto.

The politician from Ceará joins the list of other names such as liberal economists Arminio Fraga, Edmar Bacha, Pedro Malan and Elena Landau, as well as banker Roberto Setubal. A few days after the result of the second round, they were surprised by Lula’s statements against the financial market and the business community. The exception is André Lara Resende, one of the fathers of the Real Plan, who endorses the government’s criticism of the current level of the basic interest rate.

Despite having voted for the PT, former presidential candidate João Amoêdo (formerly Novo) says he has no regrets, but recognizes that Lula made mistakes with the potential to harm him in the next election.

In the first weeks of his government, Lula reversed his positions and undid electoral promises. He began his third term casting doubt on whether he would not seek a fourth in 2026, then caused cracks in the strategic relationship with the MDB by classifying the impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff (PT) as a coup, even on trips abroad.

At least with the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), previously seen as an enemy, the dialogue became mild as early as 2022, in the negotiation of the ceiling-piercing PEC.

To feed the disenchantment of those who pragmatically adhered to the then most competitive candidate against Bolsonaro, Lula has made explicit a series of contradictions.

One of the new government’s actions was the application of the prerogative of presidential secrecy, previously criticized by the president himself, on the images of vandalism at the Planalto Palace on January 8 and on the list of guests for the inauguration event at the Itamaraty. The last secrecy ended up being revised after the negative repercussions.

Lula also admitted that he will not use the triple list of careers in the Public Ministry in choosing the attorney general of the Republic who will replace Augusto Aras. The president will repeat the practice adopted by Bolsonaro and which was criticized by the PT at the time.

In this vein, the broad front discourse – which would expand the range of forces beyond the left and would reach the center, center-left and center-right – was never sustained. Analysts interviewed by People’s Gazette believe that, despite the disaggregating posture, the biggest problem is still opening spaces to accommodate partisan interests.

For the Esplanada do Ministério, representatives of the MDB, PSD and União Brasil were included, but with PT dominance. Tensions between Lula’s party and those who were not in the winning coalition, but who were incorporated into the PT administration, do not stop growing. One of the most recent bids was the hunt for nominations related to the Bolsonaro administration by the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira (PSD), for his portfolio and for Petrobras.

In the face of these noises, Arthur Lira gave a direct message to Lula: “the government does not have a majority in the Chamber and in the Senate, not even to approve a project with a simple majority, much less for constitutional matters (three-fifths of the plenary)”. He also took the opportunity to warn that initiatives such as revisions to the labor and social security reforms or a retreat in the BC’s autonomy will not prosper in parliament.

The survival given by Lula on Monday (6) to the Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho (União Brasil), who is being pressured to leave office by the PT due to accumulated accusations, could be a gesture of caution by the president, in name of governance. PSD and União Brasil’s loyalty has been demanded, but the government knows that it depends on Centrão’s votes in the Chamber to approve matters essential to it, such as the fiscal anchor and tax reform, in addition to provisional measures.

Economy is the most sensitive area

The economy is the government’s most sensitive area and its very governability depends on its success. Even with two guarantors of the “broad front” in this area, ministers Simone Tebet (Planning) and Geraldo Alckmin (Development, Industry and Commerce), economic policy has been the preferential stage for clashes between more technical actions by Minister Fernando Haddad (Finance ) and the populist wishes of influential PT figures about the government, such as its national president, deputy Gleisi Hoffmann (PR), and its Communications Secretary, Jilmar Tatto.

For several weeks, Lula, PT leaders and even ministers of the economic team, although in a less aggressive way, protested against the high level of the basic interest rate in Brazil, currently at 13.75% per annum, questioning the arguments presented by the authority monetary policy to contain persistent inflation.

With the support of left-wing allied parties, such as the PSol, the PT leaders also defended the need to revoke the BC’s independence and replace Campos Neto – the claim is that he is associated with the Bolsonaro government.

As in the so-called “New Economic Matrix”, by Dilma Rousseff, there were also proposals to finance projects considered strategic with Treasury resources, use of Petrobras cash to stimulate the economy and moderate fuel prices and even tax commodity exports. These signs of more interference in the fundamentals of the economy led to uncertainties on the horizon, reflected in the devaluation of Brazilian assets on the stock exchanges, in increases in the dollar and in future interest rates.

At the same time, due to Lula himself, the moderation discourse is losing ground and the PT continues to expand its domain within the government. It was not by chance that figures such as Zé Dirceu, honored at the party’s 43rd birthday party last month, were rehabilitated, as well as Dilma.

From the neutral language adopted by the Planalto ceremonial to promises of increasing intervention in fuel prices and BNDES financing, passing through a controversial foreign policy, which includes indifference to atrocities in Nicaragua at the UN, initiatives to attract a “democratic center” seem to have been buried.