Bolsonaro traces strategies to continue in politics

The beginning of the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), this Thursday (22), raises the question of what the former president’s path will be if he is considered ineligible by the Court. Whether supporting a candidate in the 2026 elections, or an electoral supporter for the 2024 municipal election, Bolsonaro is already making plans to continue in party politics.

The former representative is accused of abuse of political power and the media for holding a meeting with ambassadors in 2022. At the event, Bolsonaro criticized the lack of transparency of the electoral system.

The former president will be able to adopt the same strategy used by current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in 2018, at the time arrested by Operation Lava Jato, by postponing the announcement of the chosen one to replace him in that electoral dispute. The current Minister of Economy, Fernando Haddad, was confirmed as the name of the PT on the eve of the deadline for candidacy registration. In the assessment of a PL source, Bolsonaro will follow this line to protect himself and also not to wear out the future candidate for the 2026 election.

With ineligibility considered almost certain, an opinion held by Bolsonaro himself, the PL is also working to choose a successor for the 2026 presidential election. Behind the scenes, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas (Republicans); the government of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo); and governor of Paraná, Carlos Massa Ratinho Júnior (PSD) would be names quoted to assume Bolsonaro’s position.

Although Tarcísio de Freitas is considered the natural name to succeed Bolsonaro, the former president understands that his former minister should seek re-election to the government of São Paulo. In the case of Governor Zema, who belongs to Novo, the president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, has already opened talks for a possible party exchange.

In the case of Ratinho Jr., allies fear that the candidacy will be made unfeasible by the PSD’s proximity to the Lula government. However, there is still no consensus on the name to be defined by the party.

In addition, the expectation in the PL is that the former president will act as an electoral force for the next municipal elections and reinforce the presence of the party in the states. Currently, the Liberal Party has 343 mayors and, according to legend sources, the objective would be to elect more than 1000 municipal managers.

Bolsonaro plans trips and reinforcement of work in the PL

In addition to party activities, the former president is already planning trips to Brazil to talk about ineligibility. Also this Thursday, he was in Porto Alegre for a political agenda with allies in the southern region. International trips are also planned for meetings with right-wing leaders, such as a presence at the Madrid Forum – an event that brings together right-wing parties.

The presence of former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro is also expected at these appointments. She was even considered as a possible successor to Bolsonaro in the 2026 dispute, but the party is studying to launch her to the Federal Senate.

The former president’s daily performance at the PL headquarters, in Brasília, will also be one of the commitments, if he is declared ineligible. Since his return to Brazil, in March, he has participated in meetings with Valdemar Costa Neto and other allies.

In addition, he reinforced party work by joining allies who will contest the municipal elections next year. Former Health Minister Eduardo Queiroga will be the party’s candidate for mayor of João Pessoa (PB). Federal deputy André Fernandes should run for mayor of Fortaleza (CE).

The former president’s recent movements demonstrate an attempt to rally the right around the party and keep the allied base active. After a long period abroad, the former president is starting to re-establish connections with the electorate.

Judgment returns next Tuesday (27)

This Thursday’s session began with the reading of the report by Minister Benedito Gonçalves, rapporteur for the matter. Then, the prosecution and defense presented their theses and the Public Ministry read its opinion. The trial was adjourned around noon and will resume next Tuesday (27).

The President of the Electoral Court, Minister Alexandre de Moraes, suspended the session because the magistrates had other agendas in the afternoon, such as the trial session of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) this Thursday afternoon, which debates the constitutionality of the guarantees judge .

The next session will count on the vote of the rapporteur and the votes of justices Raul Araújo, Floriano de Azevedo Marques, André Ramos Tavares, the vice-president of the TSE, Cármen Lúcia, Kassio Nunes Marques and, lastly, the president of the TSE, Alexandre by Moraes.