Bolsonaro can only contest the 2030 election; understand – 06/30/2023 – Power

According to the legislation, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), 68, will be able to contest the 2030 presidential elections, aged 75. The TSE (Superior Electoral Court) decided this Friday (30) to make Bolsonaro ineligible until 2030, when he will be 75 years old.

The period of ineligibility starts counting from the election in question — October 2, 2022 —, and ends on October 2, 2030. Understand:

accusations

Bolsonaro was accused of abuse of political power, misuse of purpose and misuse of the media. He was convicted of abuse of political power or prohibited conduct — actions prohibited for interfering with the fairness and balance of elections, which could affect equality of opportunity among candidates. The two irregularities have as main punishment eight years of ineligibility.

2030 for four days

Ineligible, the former president will be able to run again in 2030, aged 75, thus staying away from three elections until then (one of them being the 2026 national).

Held on the first Sunday of October, the first round of the 2030 elections should take place on the 6th, four days after Bolsonaro is considered clean again. For experts, this is enough for him to run for election.

Therefore, unless the electoral legislation is changed in the coming years, the former president will be prevented from participating only in the municipal elections of 2024 and 2028, and the general elections of 2026, being able to apply in 2030.

Base of the action – The precedents

According to precedents 19 and 69 of the court, the period of ineligibility begins from the date of the election, October 2, 2022, and ends on the day of the same number in the eighth following year. In this case, October 2, 2030

According to TSE summary 70, the end of the ineligibility period before election day leaves the candidate able to run in the election.

The precedents synthesize the interpretation of the electoral legislation and serve as indicative of the court’s precedents.

Jurisprudence in the pandemic

The 2020 municipal elections, postponed to November 15 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, are a good example. At the time, candidates who would have been ineligible on the first Sunday of October, but who had a clean record until the new election date, had their candidacy records deferred by the TSE.

how it should happen

If Bolsonaro asks for candidacy registration in 2030, he will probably be rejected for being ineligible at that time. The former president will be able to appeal the decision and, after October 3, when his ineligibility ends, he will be able to file a petition with the Electoral Justice, which must grant him the registration of candidacy.

Bolsonaro would not even be harmed in the electoral race, since, even though he is ineligible, the legislation does not prevent him from presenting himself as a candidate or campaigning. The validity of the votes received by him would, however, be conditioned to the approval of the candidacy registration.

What the experts say

Experts heard by Sheet argue that the restriction on the right to candidacy would be more egalitarian if it came into force on the first day of the year following the election, which would make the exclusion from four elections common to all politicians covered by the legislation.

From this perspective, Bolsonaro’s punishment would begin on January 1, 2023, making the former president ineligible in two municipal and two general elections, and he could only be elected from 2032 onwards. electoral system needs to be changed in the next seven years.