Bolsa Família: Queue returns under Lula, with 438 thousand families – 06/04/2023 – Market

Almost three months after the re-launch of Bolsa Família, the social showcase of PT administrations, the program has once again recorded a waiting list. In May, 438,000 families had their registration approved by the government, but did not receive the benefit.

The portrait contradicts the government’s own expectation of keeping the queue zero until December, after the National Congress approved a PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) that injected R$ 70 billion into the social program for this year, in addition to the R$ 105 billion already initially foreseen in the Budget.

In March, when President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) inaugurated the new phase of the program, the queue reached zero. The announcement was made at a grandiose ceremony at the Planalto Palace, with the presence of ministers, civil society representatives and beneficiary families.

The PT found, in January, a liability of 498,000 families that were on the waiting list for Auxílio Brasil —a brand launched by former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and that preceded the new Bolsa Família.

With the additional funds authorized by Congress, all of these people were included in the program. But the queue grew again shortly after.

A family enters the waiting list when the documents have already been analyzed and approved by the Ministry of Development and Social Assistance. Therefore, the queue only includes those who meet the requirements and are already able to receive the benefit.

When contacted, the MDS did not clarify the reasons why it did not include these families in the program. The portfolio commanded by Wellington Dias (PT) limited itself to releasing a note listing a series of data and indicating that the average period for the entry of new beneficiaries is 70 days — more than two months.

For “vulnerable families”, which the ministry characterizes as “indigenous, quilombola, rescued from a situation analogous to slavery, among others”, the deadline is 45 days, according to the MDS.

In March, the Ministry of Planning and Budget announced a reduction of BRL 7 billion in projected spending on the program —from BRL 175 billion to BRL 168 billion. When this happens, resources are generally locked for use, as it is common to need to relocate to other areas.

The government attributed the revision of the value to the process of investigation and revision of the Single Registry of social programs. Updating the data allowed the exclusion of families that are not entitled to the benefit. In May, when there was a new assessment of the Budget, there was no change in expenditure.

An MDS interlocutor said with reservation that the savings of BRL 7 billion may “not be confirmed”, since it only reflects the expectation of excluding families, without considering the flow of new entrants in the program. The calculation is assigned to Planning.

When contacted, the portfolio headed by Simone Tebet (MDB) reported that “the aforementioned estimate was made by the National Secretariat for Citizenship Income (Senarc) of the MDS, in a technical note sent to SOF [Secretaria de Orçamento Federal]”.

A Sheet questioned the MDS if the reduction in projected expenses with the program is behind the damming of new concessions. The ministry did not directly answer that question.

In a note, the agency confirms that the estimate of expenses with the Bolsa Família in 2023 is at BRL 168 billion and says that “the projection is subject to change with each bimonthly evaluation report, which can happen depending on the flow of inflows and program outputs”. “This cycle of processes, characteristic of the program, guarantees a permanent flow of incoming new families”, he says.

The note also mentions the payment of an average benefit of R$ 670 per family. The figure is lower than the initial forecast of R$714, which should only be reached in June, when the new design of the Exchange will be fully implemented.

In March, when Lula edited the MP for the new program, the government maintained the minimum of R$600 per family and added only one of the promised benefits: an additional R$150 per child from 0 to 6 years old.

The remaining installments of R$50 for children and adolescents between 7 and 18 years of age and R$50 for pregnant women will be paid as of this month.

Currently, the program serves 21.2 million families. Auxílio Brasil covered 21.9 million households.

The reduction is explained by Wellington Dias’ plan to intensify the search for fraud and exclusion of those who are not entitled to income transfers. The exclusion of irregular registrations would make room for those who are entitled to the program — hence the expectation of keeping the queue at zero.

Despite progress in the plan to exclude irregular families, the data show that the queue has returned to a level close to the beginning of the year. Government members, however, say that the forecast to end the wait for the benefit by the end of 2023 is maintained.

Economist Marcelo Neri, director of FGV Social, says that the fine-tooth comb in the registers, after the explosion of concessions in the middle of the electoral period, ends up generating “a certain operational weight” on the program, overloading the social assistance network that already comes of a downsizing process and has not yet been fully recomposed.

He also emphasizes that withdrawing people from the program is not the only challenge facing the government. “I think you have to be more careful with who gets into the program,” he says.

Neri believes that the design of Bolsa Família has improved with the installments focused on children, but maintaining the minimum of R$600 per family undermines its efficiency and reduces the potential effect of reducing poverty, in addition to keeping the operating cost high.

“By keeping those R$600 regardless of the size and income level of the family, there is a drop in targeting”, he says.

Government calculations indicate that, on average, the new Bolsa Família will serve around 20.8 million homes this year. The downward trend in coverage, therefore, should continue in the coming months, as in May there were 21.2 million.

This movement is also explained by the search for payments mainly for single-person families —composed of a single member.

Still in the transition of government, one of the problems encountered by Lula’s team was the explosion of records of solo families after Bolsonaro instituted a minimum amount to be paid regardless of the size of the family. Many of these families were encouraged to split in order to receive a higher amount.

Therefore, the number of single-person families jumped from 2.2 million in October 2021, before the launch of Auxílio Brasil, to 5.8 million at the end of Bolsonaro’s term.