Billionaire SAF? Expert assesses the value of Athletico and possible model

Football Limited Societies (SAF’s) have gained space in Brazilian and world football. And the fans Athletico lives in the expectation of selling a percentage of the club.

The trip of Alexandre Mattos and Márcio Lara to the United States for a meeting with the Bank of Americahighlighted by columnist Augusto Mafuz, from UmDois Esportes, last week, put the matter even more in check at the local level.

The president of Hurricane, Mario Celso Petraglia, revealed in recent interviews that the value of Furacão’s SAF is greater than that of Vasco, Botafogo and Cruzeiro combined. In other words, it would exceed R$1.5 billion.

However, the initial model approved in 2021 foresees the sale of a maximum of 50% of the shares to investors, keeping the other 50% under the club’s control – with the FunCap (Fundação Clube Athletico Paranaense) as the regulatory body, with veto power over projects and agreements. Unlike what we have seen in the country.

But, after all, can Rubro-Negro reach the value projected by Petraglia and with a percentage of up to 50%? The specialist in sports management and marketing and founder of Pluri Consultoria, Fernando Ferreirabelieves so, but has reservations regarding the issue of control of the club.

“It’s possible. If Athletico sells control, it will certainly be able to reach this value. Because Athletico is one of the most valuable clubs in Brazil, it is a reference in several areas and I believe that, with very well-structured prospecting work, that beats the markets abroad and here, that can think of consortium situations, combinations or even investors. But, in any case, it is a club that has a very high value. I think R$1.5 billion is a feasible number for Athletico , but selling control”, he believes.

Expert highlights Athletico’s growth and management as differentiators for negotiations

All of Athletico’s recent context, with finances in order, having controlled debts and cash on hand, being a reference in player sales, stadium revenue – including the recent naming rights -, in addition, of course, to sporting growth, with titles and good positions in championships, are differentiators in negotiations.

O check list of a well-regarded club in the market is complete. Even so, Athletico is in no rush to “sell itself”. President Petraglia himself said that he refused an investment from Grupo City because he had no intention of participating in a group with several clubs.

“Athletico has been a model for many years, it is an example of management in several areas. And Athletico was the only club that managed to break the hierarchy of Brazilian football. Brazil has that history of the Big 12, but today I call it the 12 famous, because Athletico today has broken that, it is in the middle. In any aspect, Athletico is one of the main clubs in Brazil. And it continues to grow, but it is a reality, it is a very consolidated club”, explains Fernando Ferreira .

“Today, the club is in a very comfortable situation, because it has everything necessary to have a strong club, Athletico meets the requirements. It is a very well regarded club in the market. It is a process of almost 30 years of growth and of consolidation, which made it enter that group of those 12 that were always preferred and established itself. If you put together all the criteria that define a great club, Athletico will always be well positioned”, he adds.

Minority participation model can complicate long-term thinking

The model mentioned by Petraglia was an initial project from 2021. However, it is not officially the only format chosen, it will depend on the negotiations. Therefore, caution and analysis are required from all interested parties.

The red-black president even said that the club already had 12 letters of intent with possible investors. Petraglia has been officially away from Hurricane since June due to health problems.

Fernando Ferreira explains that minority participation is problematic in SAF’s, especially in the long term. This is because clubs have many people involved behind the scenes, when it comes to political issues, with elections, councils, etc. But the expert, once again, believes that Athletico can be a pioneer.

“The sale of minority shares is a problem when it comes to football clubs, because there are issues of governance, issues of elections, it is very difficult to shield a club politically in the long term. You can shield as far as the horizon you see, but in the long term there is a lot of uncertainty. People are using the Bayern model a lot [de Munique], but it’s Germany, right? Governance, compliance with contracts and instability are the guys’ hallmarks, you can’t compare them. This may be a wish, but in practice it is difficult”, she exemplifies.

“But having said that, Athletico is one of the few clubs that can venture to do this, to sell a minority stake. I even think it can be successful. You can shield the statute, you can create important safeguards with investors, but always in the long term. In the short term, Athletico has everything figured out, it has credibility, it has confidence, but the issue is the long term, which is always uncertain”, he projects.

Ferreira concludes by mentioning that the sale of a SAF without the club’s control tends to be for much lower values.

“We do valuation, we even did it for an important club recently and he wanted to analyze how much it was worth with the sale of control and without the sale of control. And the difference is substantial. There is a discount that you have to give to the investor because he does not have the right to control the club, because this premium for controlling the club is worth a lot. If Athletico manages to sell just the stake, this will certainly have a substantial discount and then it is the club that will assess whether this is worth it or not”, he concludes.